Non League Betting: Rooks and Magpies can fly away from danger

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 27 January 2010 / 4 Comments

"Dorchester visit fellow basement strugglers Weston-Super-Mare this weekend and should be backed at [2.5]."

Newport have shown their class this season and look set for more success against Bromley. Meanwhile, a goalscorer on a hot streak is steering Dorchester to safety...

There are some fascinating FA Trophy mismatches to get your teeth into this non-league betting weekend. Not least 200/1 outsiders Unibond Premier Guiseley at home to BSP Tamworth and the tasty North v South clash of the double-yous - Wimbledon v Workington.

There's also a serious buzz around chez Boz about the chance of Barrow progressing further at the expense of a Gateshead team whose form has fallen in a hole since the freeze.

I shall be football fanning in the cup but my betting is going to stay in the Blue Square South after last week's successes and the seeming proof that my 'Southern snout' is right. Form is proving much easier to read in BSS this year.

I shall be staying with the Exiles of Newport County who look tastily priced at [2.0] away at Bromley. They have a rare midweek defeat to bounce back from. No disgrace in losing 1-0 away to BSP hotpots York in the Trophy replay though and you could make a case for that being further evidence of Newport's class this season.

They have a stunning goal difference of plus 40 which is staggering from 24 games. I highlighted their defensive brilliance last week and goalkeeper Glyn Thomspon kept another clean sheet against St Albans and has only conceded nine in the league all year. At the other end, Craig Reid is on for the golden boot with 17 strikes. Only Bishop Stortford's famous son Charlie Sheringham is in the running to derail him. Sam Foley is also on the league's top scorer chart and perhaps most significantly, Dave Gilroy's move from Weston has added a third proven goalscorer to the County ranks and already you see them gearing up for life at the higher level.

Bromley won't roll over but Newport are irresistible this season with still only one league defeat to their name and look a good value price here. They should be followed to the season's end.

My other two picks are also centred around the arrival of goalscorers and the difference that makes to a club. Ex- Dagenham stalwart Ashley Vickers' turning up as manager of Dorchester has heralded an upturn in Magpie form not least because he brought in Nick Crittenden who just can't stop scoring goals. Three in the last two games and the Magpies look like they might fly away now from any threat of relegation. They visit fellow basement strugglers Weston-Super-Mare this weekend and should be backed at [2.5].

And Lewes are the final pick to win away again at woeful Weymouth. [2.5] looks a generous price for them and if you factor in their form since Boxing Day when they beat Dover with a whopping six goal stunner, it's as close to a steal as you can get.

A basement six pointer on paper but the Terras are still in disarray despite (or because of) the arrival of maniacal director George Rolls - he of the 'what's football got to do with it' school of running a club.

The Rooks look like serious propositions to avoid relegation since Jean Michel Sigere turned up to partner the limited but hardworking ex-manager's son Joe Keehan up front and despite the presence of Newport in my picks, the Rooks are actually this weekend's BOZnap.

The Boz's Best Bets:
Back Newport County to beat Bromley at [2.0] or greater
Back Dorchester to beat Weston Super-Mare at [2.5] or greater
Back Lewes to beat Weymouth at [2.5] or greater

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -5.20 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.

Comments (4)

1. sean | 28 January 2010

   Dave Gilroy hasn't moved from Weston to Newport. He moved from Weston to Chippenham a few years back and then on to Bath before joining Newport at the start of this season. He was at Weston on loan in order to get some games having returned from injury, his loan spell expired.

2. Daz | 28 January 2010

   Have you factored in Lewes' away form though which is terrible? Granted the price is still tempting

3. The Boz | 29 January 2010

   Thanks for putting me straight Sean. Wanna job as me Southern snout's snout?
   The boys at Weston had me believing they'd signed Gilroy and they were seriously miffed at his departure after being the guy scoring the goals for them. Bottom line is he has come in and started scoring for Newport having been top scorer for Weston and that for me is smart work for Newport who still look slightly fragile to me in build up play. Extra scoring power will not go amiss but I seriously don't expect them to derail now. Do you agree?
   As for Lewes's away form. Well yeh but that was then and this is now. Lewes - with off field worries alleviated - and a striker to score goals at last- look a new team. Past form might be binnable and as you say, the value is there considering who they are playing. They have to win one away sometime and the Dover performance was a stunner. They still rate potential nap for me and I particularly like how Joe Keehan has stuck with the club and how Sigere is proving a good foil for him up front. Keehan has the qualities I most admire watching non-league football. Hard work and loyalty. Always like to see that doing well.

   BOZ

4. Daz | 04 February 2010

   Yeah it was a great result against Dover but Dover were in very poor form at the time and in the reverse fixture a week later beat them. I always find away and home form an important factor when having a bet as regardless of what happens at a club it always seems to be fairly consistent. Take Histon for example who are still performing really well at home despite whats been going on there. Yeah Lewes might win away at somepoint but I would be prepared to let them win without any of my money on it.