Non-League Betting: Price or prejudice?

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 13 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Kiera Knightley, star of Pride and Prejudice

THE BOZ’S BEST BETS:

LAY BLYTH SPARTANS (2pts) at [1.64] or less against VAUXHALL MOTORS
BACK BARROW-HISTON draw at [3.4] or greater
BACK YORK at [1.55] or greater against HAYES

Gary Boswell tries to dodge the potentially postponed matches whilst searching for three good bets from the world of non-league football.

The trick this weekend looks to be to stick to the North. Fleetwood and Blyth got their Trophy games on midweek and the forecast suggests that is likely to remain the zone to concentrate in.

On pure footballing considerations, I'd like to repeat my assertion from last weekend that Kettering are a team to take on possibly for the rest of the season and certainly whilst their early season form is still factored into the price. Further meltdown for them now as Chairman Ladak chucks in the towel. The loss of Exodus Geohaghon, Lee Fowler, Francis Green and Moses Ashikodi represents the departure of the best players (no overstatement) and this week's news that promotion is impossible whilst the local council refuse co-operation on the ground lease and that a merger with another club is contemplated seems sure to send further meltdown shockwaves throughout the club. Could the contemplated merger be with the already merged Rushden and Diamonds who are due to visit this weekend? Not beyond the bounds of possibility, such is the raggedness of the future of non-league football at the moment as the twin barbs of recession and weather-prevented games continues to kick in.

I'm a big layer of the Poppies at anything around the projected [2.5] for this weekend's game. Sadly, I do think the weather is likely to dictate on that once more.

And so I stick to three games scheduled for the North of England. There's a really good chance of action at Holker Street. As I write, Barrow is completely freeze free and with the transfer window action of Simon Wiles in to replace Marc Goodfellow, who has been recalled to Burton, the Bluebirds have managed a bit more stability than some in this turbulent spell. They host Histon and I'd normally have that on my "no bet" list as an all three results possible but a closer look threw up the unnoticed fact that Barrow have drawn an astonishing 61 and a half per cent of their home league games this season! Not sure how I hadn't noticed that before but it's a stunningly high incidence and although such stats can go either way in the future, and Histon don't have a corresponding high incidence in their away games, I'm tempted to have a bet on the draw. It is an even contest on paper and although Steve Fallon's re-instatement as manager and subsequent dismissal three days later is likely to cause unrest in the Stutes' camp, you can fancy the away win aswell purely on the strength of their player class that is still on board. Better overall than Barrow's on my ratings and the league position confirms this.

The home win price of [2.56] is also surface value but I'm swayed ultimately by that Barrow home draws stat to thinking that the outsider of three, [3.4] the draw, is the value way to play. At least there looks a good chance we won't be betting on thin air!

Blyth Spartans look sure to give us another game in the Blue Square North and their humbling at the hands of Unibond Guiseley midweek means that they can be laid again on Saturday with little risk. They host basement boys Vauxhall Motors who haven't won away all season hence the Blyth win price of [1.64]. A wrong price though as Blyth have been desperately disappointing after all the money spent in the summer. They equate to an only slightly better side than Vauxhall and with the Trophy humiliation hanging over their heads, strike me as vulnerable again on Saturday. I'm keen to take them on.

The York-Hayes game in BSP is my third attempt at a bet that will actually take place. Hayes are a fabulous price at [7.4] given their current form. York are very skinny at [1.55] but they are unbeaten at the KitKat this season and although they may suffer a slight hangover from the FA Cup defeat at Stoke, I'm loathe to oppose them as the BSP team of 2009. Price or prejudice? If it weren't for the weather, I'd probably stay out but I'm determined to get three bets on and so I'll stick with the Minstermen who still have the league's best goalscorer in Richard Brodie on board.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

LAY BLYTH SPARTANS (2pts) at [1.64] or less against VAUXHALL MOTORS
BACK BARROW-HISTON draw at [3.4] or greater
BACK YORK at [1.55] or greater against HAYES

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -5.97 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.