Non-League Betting: Price keeps dropping on Luton and I'm ready to lay!

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 07 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Luton have an extremely tricky trip to the the Kingsmeadow on the opening day of the season and are well worth opposing.

"The problem for them on first day at the Kingsmeadow is that AFC Wimbledon have won every single first game of the season since their formation. With a bumper crowd sure to turn up for this ‘Match of The Day’ in BSP and with Terry Brown very adept at what it takes both to succeed in non-league and engineer the taking of League team scalps, the price of 2.98 on a home win looks worth coupling with the draw price of 3.35."

Gary Boswell is back from a summer of watching women's tennis and men's table tennis to talk us through a few of the last months' stories from the world of non-league football. Plus the best bets from this weekend's upcoming action.

You can pass it around all you like in non-league football. It's obviously good to watch but it doesn't necessarily win you anything as Jimmy Harvey has proved over the years at Morecambe and FGR. I watched The Shrimps more than anyone between 2001 and their final leap up into the Football League and consider it no coincidence that they finally achieved their ambition once Sammy McIlroy came along and made them grit their teeth and kick each other as well as the ball!

I'm not saying non-league footy is necessarily less skilled of course. Just a different type of game to the one League teams are used to. You've got to be really good to come and pass your way past some of non-league's better organised defences and the sides falling out of League Two tend not to be the classiest exponents of the passing game.

Luton were watched at Hampton and Richmond on Saturday - with a fairly full strength line up trying reasonably hard considering that it was a friendly - and were less impressive than Wrexham had been when I checked them out last summer. The best teams I've been to see in the summer in recent years have been Paul Simpson's Carlisle and Paul Buckle's Torquay - the latter being the side who perhaps got the idea of playing non- league footy quickest.

It still took them two years to escape back to the League though and neither did it as champions and I'll be amazed if Luton buck that trend.

I'm not saying they definitely won't win the BSP. It's just that I always look at it from a mathematical probability point of view, as dictated by being a betting pundit. I'd want [9.0] on The Hatters being champs in May instead of which the flattering result against a Man U XI last midweek has seen them tighten again so that you can now Lay with Betfair at [3.75].

Whilst they have depth within their squad, the confidence that came with winning at Wembley via playing a classy-looking passing game, they by no means convinced me that they are a worthy fav at that miniscule price. Sides always find the drop down a serious culture shock. If it's not on the pitch (as it wasn't in Oxford's case) then it's off it where the tiny revenue generated by away fans bites in around Xmas.

Luton might win if their boardroom is as solidly reconstructed as has been touted but at less than 3/1, they are being expected to walk it and unless they win their tough first two - away at Wimbledon and at home to Mansfield - I just can't see it. Small lay now to be increased later if, as expected, they can't get six points from their first two games.

The problem for them on first day at the Kingsmeadow is that AFC Wimbledon have won every single first game of the season since their formation. With a bumper crowd sure to turn up for this 'Match of The Day' in BSP and with Terry Brown very adept at what it takes both to succeed in non-league and engineer the taking of League team scalps, the price of [2.98] on a home win looks worth coupling with the draw price of [3.35]. The lay on Luton levels out your winnings either way.

Lots of tricky first day fixtures with no current or collateral form to help unravel on day one and I'm inclined to begin the season going against a few of the clubs in turmoil rather than trying to work out who will win. Top of the turmoil list are Cambridge United whose chairman George Rolls has been watching too much television and upsetting managers new and old with his patently stupid stunts. The 9 day tenure of Martin Ling beggars belief and with Rolls himself following out the door, off pitch leadership is in disarray. Distractions like this are always worth noting and I expect a Barrow team, who have had a very focussed pre-season preparation, to engender a day one advantage by taking something against the book. Cambridge are a lay at the low, low price of [1.72].

Also in the managerial soup and shipping players like ballast all summer are Forest Green and they can also be opposed on Day One against Mark Cooper's stable Kettering squad..

Going to take it steady in BSN and BSS on first day but my tips for the top in each are Fleetwood Town which I advise posting at [7.0] and Hampton & Richmond at [11.5]. Alan Devonshire has been extremely unlucky with the Beavers as losing play-off finalists the past two years but the Middlesex outfit looked very impressive in their summer campaign and can go one better this season at the main expense of Woking and Andy Hessenthaler's new boys from Dover.

Gary Boswell's best three bets for the weekend:

LAY LUTON at [2.58] or shorter against AFC Wimbledon
LAY CAMBRIDGE at [1.72] or shorter against Barrow
LAY FOREST GREEN at [2.9] or shorter against Kettering