Non-league Betting Preview: Wheel out the Barrow for profit

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 30 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Boz's Three Bets for the weekend:

Lay Luton at [1.7] or shorter against Tamworth
Lay Oxford at [1.7] or shorter against Barrow
Lay Mansfield at [1.7] or shorter against Forest Green

The Boz is laying lovely Luton, predicting an upset at Barrow and sensing the end of Forrest Green's run as he previews the best of the Blue Square Premier's weekend action...

The switch to backing draws did a good job reclaiming losses last weekend and it had to be tempting to stick with it as a modus operandi - especially when draws are distinctly possible at big odds in all this weekend's featured games. My prediction work, however, is coming up with full scale shocks for Saturday where it is the wise play to keep the draw on your side and lay the shortie. I therefore revert to my three lay system to take on Luton, Oxford and Mansfield all at screaming odds on.

The root of my logic lies in the Barrow v Mansfield game that I witnessed on Tuesday night where the simple fact was that the Bluebirds became a phoenix-like new side with Jason Walker back in the frontline. The local Flookburgh fisherboy has had a checkered career with knee ligament problems that brought him out of Scottish Premier football and have so far prevented him from achieving his dream of getting into the English Football League. But he came back in on Tuesday night and set Holker Street on fire with two sensational goals.

Mansfield come to the game as [1.8] favourites but were totally unprepared for the new look Barrow who have also brought in Neil Wainwright and Marvin Kamara as class wide players. They tore through the Stags defence all night and but for an inspired game by Marriott in the Mansfield goal would have won six.

I expect runaway league leaders Oxford to get a similar shock on Saturday as they visit Holker Street as even shorter [1.7] favs. Although Constable and Cook will test the Barrow defence, I expect the tricky, diminutive Walker to give Mark Creighton the run around in the Oxford defence and cause a shock. The [5.0] on a Barrow home win is a very tempting back but Oxford are perhaps good enough to claim a high scoring draw and I'll play safe with the lay on the screaming shortie odds.

The draw is a possibility at Field Mill aswell as we face the astonishing fact that Forest Green are now unbeaten in their last six with the season's inaugural wins coming back to back in the last seven days against Grays and Chester. Rovers looked so woeful early on and relegation was assuredly beckoning but oddly the game at Holker Street a fortnight back does seem to have proved their catalyst as they went hell for leather that night and ended a goal drought. Strikes have been coming in a flood since with Sean Rigg visibly growing in confidence partnered now by the talented Toni Ameobi. Manager Dave Hockaday has got a roll on that could well continue at Field Mill Saturday against the shell-shocked Stags who look vulnerable to me at [1.7].

And finally Luton. Lovely Luton who have all but landed my season long BSP portfolio profit all ready by being so short to lay at the start of a September that was sure to be a serious test for them and from which they have hauled just three points.
Thirteen points adrift of Oxford now and whilst Barrow may well do them a favour if I'm right, unfortunately they face another stiff ask at Kenilworth Road against Mark Cooper's Tamworth draw kings. The point they got for us last week at Eastbourne was their seventh in thirteen games and they play simply with the plan to frustrate and are thus remarkably difficult to break down. If there was one game to back the draw on, this would be it. With the pot boiling now though at Kenilworth Road, I wouldn't put it past Tamworth to nick this late just as Stevenage did on Tuesday night. Lay the Hatters at [1.7] is once more the play and if I get all three wrong, I only lose 2.1 which is what you might call low risk weekend fare!

* The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -1.51 to level stakes for the 09/10 season.