Non-league Betting Preview: 'Dont panic! Don't panic!'

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 03 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Boz's Best Three Weekend Bets:

Lay Cambridge United at [1.54] or shorter against Forest Green
Lay Gainsborough Trinity at [2.6] or shorter against Solihull Moors
Lay Woking at [2.8] or shorter against Hampton & Richmond

After the form book took a tearing, the Boz is still nursing his Bank Holiday bruises. But he's holding his hands up for his mistakes and is ready to atone this weekend with a large reason to oppose Little...

Bank Holidays.

Pah! I'd ban them. Something strange comes over the human psyche and even footballers start behaving in ways that are totally unaccept..I mean unpredictable!

So says the Boz who is busy nursing Bank Holiday bruises to the tune of three losing lays in BSP last weekend, undoing all my good work of the opening two weekends.

The only good news was that the two I jettisoned also went down, which is a bit like the joy we feel when the newsreader announces the death toll in the forest fire is one less than previously reported! Yippee!

Losses have to be borne of course and how you handle your losing streak defines the gambler you are. Abandon the system and start afresh? Double your stakes to claw back your losses? Melt down the lucky horseshoe and sell it for scrap?

The last one is not a bad idea but not the first two. What the professional does is spend the week analysing what went wrong and building the lessons learned into a concentrated, but not knee jerk, reaction.

I've made a couple of misreads in the past two weeks. As you do now and then if you are human! I overstated the case for Chester City's revival - all thoughts of which can now be abandoned. The boys from the Deva are going down! The draw against Altrincham also highlighted my talking up Alty from the week before as folly. Players have started exiting Moss Lane and their brief Championship hopes are curtailed.

And so back in to the minefield of the BSP where, at this early stage, anybody can beat anybody...

The major call is to take it steady and not over-react to the nightmare Bank Holiday. Stick to the system and work harder at minimising possible losses. As the great Jonesy says in Dad's Army. 'Don't Panic,Don't Panic!'.

I've narrowed to three Lays again and tried hard to keep them tight. Dropping out of BSP for a week seemed wise although Cambridge United caught my eye again as a side successfully opposed twice already and only a small stakes loser last weekend.

They are screaming odds on again at the Abbey on Saturday and must play host to a Forest Green Rovers that finally broke their duck in unpredictable fashion with a point at the league leaders on Bank Holiday Monday.

Rovers are worth supporting to build on the fillip of that first point. Although the passing game that has undone many a side in recent seasons has perhaps exited with Jim Harvey, they still have a midfield that can boss the standard. Against Oxford on Monday, goalkeeper Terry Burton was inspired and the defence kept a first clean sheet of the season. I'm prepared to back them as a low risk to halt Cambridge's run. [1.54] on Cambridge is an emminently layable price.

As is [2.6] on Gainsborough Trinity in Blue Square North. Away at Bob Faulkner's Solihull Moors who are unbeaten in the last three. The Trinity price is a knee jerk to Brian Little's appointment at the Northolme and whilst the old warhorse may be able to sweep away the cobwebs that have seen the Trinity drop into the relegation places, it might take a few weeks. This is one of those clubs where boardroom mayhem and instability has spilled on to the pitch. There will be those who point to his failure at Wrexham last year. Balance that against loyal old servant Bob Faulkner who has arrested the Moors poor start to the season and got Solihull on a roll. This is an underestimated titan who may lay the sword to Little's reputation and gives me a large reason to oppose the Trinity.

For my final lay I venture into BSS. I got to know Hampton & Richmond in pre-season and still fancy them to do well. They started badly but have rallied with three wins away from the Beveree. None at home would be a cause for concern but they can put that right this weekend with the visit of a Woking side who are workmanlike at best and are sure to struggle against Alan Devonshire's well drilled defence. Woking can be laid at [2.8] or shorter.

*The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -0.71 to level stakes for the 09/10 season.