Non-League Betting: Oxford win is by no means academic

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 18 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Believe it or not but that's Mark Creighton (in his Kidderminster days) tackling Steve Morison in the 2007 FA Trophy.

"I do still fancy Barrow to get something. Craig Nelthorpe will definitely play and will cause Oxford some problems. I think the price is about right to take the risk."

An in-form Gary Boswell talks us through his weekend selections in the world of non-league football.

I was initially very keen on backing Barrow at [9.0] at the Kassam on Saturday but research and revelations have been dimming my ardour all week. It's reduced now to just a small risk bet against the screaming odds-on fav - a 0.4 loss, and still a value bet that appeals.

Basically, Barrow are unbeaten in their last six (eight including cup games) and also have a good recent track record against the Us, having beaten them 3-0 at Holker Street last season and secured a 1-1 draw against the Championship moulded side there already this season.

I do have Oxford pencilled in for a wobble at some stage just because they are Oxford but also because I have a theory about Mark Creighton's legs that may be set to undo things at some stage. You may remember the lactic acid that attacked him at Wembley a few seasons ago and how Steve Morison took advantage.

I've watched Creighton closely now for years at Redditch and Kiddy and am sure it's a feature that holds him back from league standard play. He's very strong in the aerial department and when the pitch is not testing, he seems to cope ok. No co-incidence though that Kiddy knew how to play him in last week's defeat. They also got Kinniburgh sent off as the frustration mounted and that for me was the first sign of the wobble that may or may not come.

I've been considering opening up my BSP portfolio again now that Oxford are a very short price to lay in the outrights and once I've seen what happens in this, I'll be seriously considering it.

Several things have tempered confidence in Barrow though. Much of my theory relied on Creighton being given the run around on a wet pitch but the news that Andy Cook is definitely out and that Jason Walker and Jon Shaw are both hamstring doubts means that Barrow could be very light up front. Walker in particular will be a huge loss. It was him that I fancied to dance round Creighton. Hence the going off the [9.0] back. Barrow might play for 0-0 and still have the confidence and current form to achieve that.

The other worry is that the tie gets duplicated next weekend in the FA Cup. Barrow are sure to prefer victory in that and may well save their best resources (especially the injured ones) whilst Oxford are almost surely going to prioritise this one. Therefore the back on Barrow is definitely saved for next week!

Finally, several pools panel colleagues are napping Oxford. That in itself does not put me off the bet I'm suggesting because I do have the local knowledge in hand over them. They don't often get things wrong though so I'm obviously putting my neck on the line a bit!

I do still fancy Barrow to get something. Craig Nelthorpe will definitely play and will cause Oxford some problems. I think the price is about right to take the risk.

The weekend's bankers are Hayes & Yeading to continue their terrific form against Crawley at the princely odds of [2.6] or greater. Three wins in a row against Tamworth,Cambridge and Wrexham is no fluke and Garry Haylock has rediscovered the genius that helped him get them promoted last season against the odds. It's all in the tactics. Hit 'em early and then sit and soak and catch them on the break. Clean sheets in all three suggests that the soak aspect of the plan is particularly well orchestrated!

I also fancy Luton to continue their good run against Cambridge and [1.8] or greater is a fair price.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:
LAY OXFORD at [1.4] or shorter against Barrow
BACK HAYES & YEADING at [2.6] or longer against Crawley
BACK LUTON at [1.8] or greater against Cambridge

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -1.91 to level stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.