Non-League Betting: It's the price that sinks any desire to bet on the Fleet

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 06 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Far away from the glamour of the Champions League and media spotlight of the Premiership, Non-League football continues in it's merry way and this week there are three live televised matches. Gary Boswell talks us through it all.

I always marvel when oddsmakers give a % weighting on a result that is driven purely by the fact that the side is playing at home. The reason I really loved the arrival of Betfair was the chance it gave me to challenge that day in day out. There's no better place to challenge it for me than in non-league football and you see it in all it's glory in Monday night's televised game at Stonebridge Road where Liam Daish's Ebbsfleet are set to host Steve Fallon's super Stutes from the tiny town of Histon.

All passionate non-league lovers root for Histon who are the real live Goliath slayers and have been punching above their weight for many seasons now under Fallon's eagle eye. Back up into the play-offs after stemming their mini-wobble with a solid home win on Saturday. The dream of league football is beckoning and they are a stonking [3.85] to beat Ebbsfleet who slipped to ninth after their inauspicious defeat at Moss Lane at the weekend.

Blue Square's odds compilers had chalked Ebbsfleet at [1.72] for this game prior to those results but have relented a little and released even money prior to the game whilst the Betfair market is offering a best of [2.12].

Consider this. Ebbsfleet are unbeaten at Stonebridge Road this season but have just a 33% win ratio courtesy of their tendency to draws. And yet we are being asked to take a mark up that was taking well over 50% out of the over round and is still taking plus 45% even with the value Betfair offers.

The Boz is always happier when he can make a case for laying the favourites as proved on Saturday. Just something about me that doesn't click when I'm backing them and I'm perfectly happy to take on Ebbsfleet who play decent football on occasions but have a manager who disgraced himself again on Saturday and are looking less and less the stable outfit required for league title winning consistency.

They might win Monday night but they are the wrong price to do so. That 33% home win ratio would have me requiring [3.0] before I would consider backing them to win - home advantage or no home advantage. It's lay time for me again and the poor record that Live on Setanta favourites continue to chalk also supports this decision.

It's more difficult to be enthusiastic about laying Stevenage on Tuesday night although again their win price of [2.2] hardly inspires me into backing. I napped up Westley's wonders last weekend which was cue for them to revert to their winless ways and they took a right beating off Torquay this weekend so hardly come into this in the sort of form you'd want for a favourite. The downside to laying Stevenage though is that opponents Mansfield have a cloud hanging over them in the shape of threatened points deduction for registration irregularities at the start of the season.

I predicted it leading to the loss of their unbeaten home record on Saturday and I'll be waiting to hear the outcome of the FA enquiry on Monday before steaming into them on Tuesday night. They play the football to upset a dodgy Stevenage defence and [3.85] is a tempting price in theory. Just that current form record since the threatened points deduction that worries me. On balance, I'm happy to just sticking to the lay on Ebbsfleet Monday night but if Mansfield do come out of today's enquiry without any penalties, expect to see the Boz having a crack at the Stags aswell. In rampant mood, Nathan Arnold and Mark Stallard have the class to run rings around Ronnie Henry and co in the Stevange defence and I would expect Stevenage keeper Chris Day to have a busy time in general whatever Mansfield's mood.

With both sides noted for their goalscoring, the 0-0 strategy that I use in Live games will be suspended and I might instead look at playing in the over 2.5 goals market. Bookmakers are marking this up at [1.66] and I'll be looking to match on the Betfair market at [1.8] or greater.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

2pt LAY on EBBSFLEET at the current price of [2.2] or less
1pt BACK on the over 2.5 goals in the Stevanage/Mansfield game at [1.8] or greater