Non-league / Gary Boswell / 22 September 2010 / 4

Gary Boswell looks ahead to Thursday night's televised match between AFC Wimbledon and Crawley before giving us his thoughts on the BSP winner market where Luton Town are still short-priced favourites for no particularly good reason...

Another top of the table six pointer to savour in the BSBP Live on Channel 433 Thursday night as AFC Wimbledon host Crawley at Kingsmeadow. Terry Brown's Wombles are unbeaten at home and Steve Evans' Red Devils are unbeaten away so something has to give or else the draw price of [3.4] represents the value bet.

Wimbledon are [2.52] to back with Crawley as long as [3.15]. The outcome of the match could hinge on which strike duo is the classier. Danny Kedwell tops the golden boot for Wimbledon whilst 'Main' man Jon has turned provider this year. Crawley have pasted two proven Conference goalgetters as their strike duo at great expense. Richard Brodie and Matt Tubbs have the potential to go all the way together and it is fair to say that in Ben Wright and Craig McAllister, Evans also has regular goalscorers coming off the bench. It is that squad approach that Evans has bigged up as his main weapon in claiming the title this year and Crawley are [4.1] in the outrights now from a pre-season position of longer than 40/1.

All this without involving Luton, who played their fifth game from ten without victory at Darlington on Tuesday night meaning their market price of under [3.0] remains extremely poor value. Weight of money invested is keeping the top of the market compressed on both Luton and Crawley so that if you think (like me) that we are actually in a very open year, there is plenty of value around to be taken. Not least on the league's surprise package so far - Garry Mills's Tamworth. Not a team I considered pre-season and available now at a still juicy [48.0] following just one defeat in ten and that away at Wimbledon. They are interesting because as well as beating Luton in style at home, they won scruffy at Histon last Saturday and came from a 0-2 deficit against whipping boys Bath to grasp a point Tuesday night. Their mentality reminds me of Aldershot a few seasons back who started in similar vein.

Then there's the Holdsworth twins at Newport County and Mansfield. Both very much in the mix as are my unfashionable big-spenders from Fleetwood who are on an upward learning curve but very much hanging in there.

You are a better man than me if you can call the winner from here but I remain of the same opinion that I was pre-season - that the prices in the market in no way reflect the chance eventualties. Remembering of course that no ex-league team has won this division for the past six years (counting the new Aldershot set up as separate from the old league incarnation).Only one such winner in the last twelve years - that being Chester in 2004. It is a league being won by traditional non league teams with the club ambition to progress and the nous to achieve consistency in that particular brand of the game that is non league football.

Reading the outright winner might be hard but finding a weekly banker in the match betting has been even harder for the past twelve months or so. I've been encouraged in my predicting work by good scores the last two Saturdays (nothing to do with the arrival of Lord Stevens on the scene I am reliably assured!) but took a dip again midweek and have scratched my head through all twelve fixtures this weekend trying to find one to be sure of. It was Fleetwood to beat Bath at around [1.57] originally but Adie Britton's Romans are disappearing down nobody's plug hole and have drawn four of their last six including heroic efforts against Darlington and Tamworth last two. Fleetwood might win but I can't now have them as banker so I'm abandoning the approach this weekend and seeking value instead. Last season's solid Altrincham have had me scratching my head a great deal since their opening day stalwart performance at Kenilworth Road since which they have gone into free fall. Just one point from nine games before they came out against Barrow Tuesday night and laid the foundation for a first win of the season in front of over a thousand fans who have stayed loyal. The goal celebrations told you all you need to know about what the win meant and they look a good price to me [4.3] to follow it up on Saturday against a Grimsby side who are proving no more than ordinary.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

0.5points on Tamworth at [48.0] in the BSBP outright market
& 1 point on Altrincham to beat Grimsby at [4.3] this Saturday

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1. Daz | 22 September 2010

   Might be worth remembering that Tamworth started well like this last year then dropped away and werent far away from getting relegated. I just wonder if the wheels are just about to fall off again. It sounds like they were poor on Saturday and Histon only having 10 men must of helped and last nights result has to go down as disappointing.
   I also think the layers on Betfair are taking a massive chance on Crawley in the live game its much bigger here than with the bookies.

2. Mike | 25 September 2010

   I think ignore wrexham at your peril! They are sneaking up quietly on the rails!

3. Mike | 25 September 2010

   I think ignore wrexham at your peril! They are sneaking up quietly on the rails! Take the 25/1 generally available

4. the boz | 04 October 2010

   Nobody picked me up then on the factual error pointed out to me by BOZ junior - namely that Barnet were an ex-league team when they won the Conference Premier. It is a mistake I've made once before. Whenever I visit Underhill, it feels so much like a non league ground!
   Doesn't change my argument much except that it perhaps applies to the perceived 'bigger' ex league clubs which definitely includes Wrexham!
   Tamworth have started their flop though Daz so good call on that. It is turning into a fascinating title race I think. Still five or six serious candidates for my money and some tasty head to heads coming up this midweek!

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