Non-league / Gary Boswell / 17 September 2009 / 1 Comments

Luton's boss sticks his neck out and so does the Boz. But who will prevail? And where can we find the weekend's best Blue Square bets?

"Eight or nine points looks imminently gettable for Oxford and my money is on them having a nine or 10 point lead over Luton by the end of September."

Luton will win the league. So says Mick Harford who put his reputation on the line in front of a stunning 6,264 fans at Kenilworth Road last weekend as the Hatters played host to the huffing and puffing boys from Barrow.

He's talking the big talk and the return of Liam Hatch from injury has given him confidence that the last season's Johnstone Paint winners are too good for this league.

I'm continuing to put my reputation on the line too because I say most categorically that they are not. Yes, they pass it about and yes, they create a plethora of chances which they consistently fail to convert and yet again last weekend they squeaked through against a minnow who would have nicked a point at the end but for the heroic challenge of Hatter's man of the match Adam Newton.

They are competing but to my eyes they are still busy adapting to the different style of football and it is causing problems both up front and in defence. Marginal wins over Gateshead, Forest Green and Barrow are not good enough really when combined with dropped points against Salisbury and Chester and the loss to Oxford.

The seven point gap remains as Oxford continued their relentless points haul with a much tougher win away at Wrexham and thus ends the first 10 games of the season.
The bad news for Luton is that they had a potentially easier opening salvo and now hit their tough patch with a home game against in form York on Saturday and Stevenage after that. The month is compounded by two tough away trips to Cambridge and Wrexham and if the Hatters get more than six points from that line-up then perhaps they'll deserve to be champions.

More likely is that the gap will widen further because September brings Oxford a slightly easier next four games hosting Eastbourne this weekend and Crawley next with a road game at Gateshead in between. The 'on paper' tester comes with a trip to Field Mill but David Holdsworth's Stags have just gone off the boil after a good start and it could well prove an ideal time to be playing them. Eight or nine points looks imminently gettable for the Us and my money is on them having a nine or 10 point lead over Luton by the end of September.

The market odds tend not to reflect this 'upcoming fixtures' approach which is the way to get an edge in long term betting markets. Predictably, after I recommended a 10 point lay on Luton in the outrights last week, their price didn't lengthen but instead contracted. Why? Because they won a home game against Barrow 1-0 in front of 6,264 loyal fans. The Boz will be taking advantage again with another ten points this week at the reduced Lay price of [4.1]. This is a Lay to Back recommendation specifically geared to the month of September.

Match betting continues to be turbulent despite getting back on the profit trail last weekend. I'm keeping it tight again this week with just two bets. The first breaks my season long Lay only system as Ebbsfleet are outside my price parameter and play host this weekend to AFC Wimbledon who I seriously fancy to come and take all three points.

The Wombles have advertised tickets on their awayday coach to Barrow in November at the princely price of £60 per head to include air conditioning and a telly (but no prawn sandwich) and this signals to me the kind of world the Supporters Club team is aspiring to. On pitch exploits are backing it up especially away from home where the win at Kettering reads particularly well.

There is also the matter of devastating striker Jon Main being kept out of the team at the moment. In reserve for the second half of the season campaign? I still strongly fancy the Wombles to make a push and they come up against a fan club going in the other direction in Ebbsfleet who haven't won a game yet at Stonebridge Road and who shipped out their best players in the summer so that only goalkeeper Lance Cronin remains. He won't stop Wimbledon on his own and the back price of [2.02] on a Wombles win should be taken.

It breaks my heart to recommend a lay on my home town team of Redditch but Gary Whild's days may soon be numbered if he can't get them winning soon. Home form has been the problem again with just one win and five goals from five games so far and hosting my team of the moment this weekend in Workington.

This fixture is charged with emotion because it was against Workington that Whild took his players off the pitch two seasons ago amidst accusations of 'unacceptable racism' from the Workington faithful (or more accurately, the nutter in the brown shirt!).

Don't expect a Luton sized crowd at this game. In the current climate there is a chance there will be more people on the pitch! Redditch are a short price at [2.4] which doesn't reflect the improvement going on with the Cumbrian team who will I think come for at least a point.

The Boz's three best weekend bets:

Lay Redditch @ [2.4] or shorter against Workington
Back AFC Wimbledon @ [2.02] or longer against Ebbsfleet
Lay Luton (another 10 pts) at [4.1] or shorter in the BSP outrights to be used as a September Lay to Back bet.

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -4.11 to level stakes for the 09/10 season.

Tags: AFC Wimbledon, Blue Square Premier Betting, football odds, Gary Boswell, Luton Town, Non-league football betting, Redditch, The Boz