Non-League Betting: Grimsby and Luton to share Friday night spoils

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 19 October 2011 / 1

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Gary reckons Grimsby can hold out for a draw on Friday

"We could see a high scoring affair with over 3.5 goals worth considering."

The Mariners host the Hatters under the Friday night lights so grab on to your chip wrappers and check out Gray Boswell's betting advice...

Grimsby v Luton
Blundell Park - 19:45 Friday October 21
Live on Premier Sports
Match odds: Grimsby [3.3] Luton [2.2] Draw [3.5]

There's no shame in admitting the draw is the value in this one. Gary Brabin put the word out from the off that the Hatters were going away from home to avoid defeat this year as they bid to win the title. Consequently, they have five draws from eight away games and, until the defeat at York, an unbeaten season looked a possibility.

But Luton were then beaten at home to Cambridge before getting back on track with two 5-1 home wins. With key players back from injury, Brabin's boys are serious contenders for the Conference Premier title. They very rarely lose to the lesser lights.

Grimsby's home form casts doubt on the draw option with no even stevens from their eight encounters at Blundell Park - unless of course you subscribe to the 'absence heightens likelihood of occurrence' school of interpreting stats for betting purposes. The home draw has to happen soon you might think.

I note a high corners incidence for both sides this season with Grimsby somewhat surprisingly topping the BSBP table. Luton also average two goals per game so we could see a high scoring affair with over 3.5 goals worth considering.

It's difficult not to fancy Luton now that the injury table is clearing and the return of inspirational captain George Pilkington and left-back Shane Blackett in particular has left the Hatters a lot less vulnerable at the back. Lionel Messi lookalike John Paul Kissock has been starring off the bench and in Amari Morgan Smith, Stuart Fleetwood and Aaron O'Connor, they have a pocket rocket attack that plays its football very much to speed on the deck. Grimsby have nine defeats in 17 games and their defence is certain to be tested.

The Mariners have Anthony Elding as a potent strikeforce and in Liam Hearn they have one of the division's mercurial talents. Seven in two games has rectified his confidence after as an uncertain start to the season and Hearn looks set to challenge Gateshead's Jon Shaw for golden boot honours.

There have been two limp defeats for the Mariners coming in to this though, and the 3-1 at Ebbsfleet Tuesday was a direct current form yardstick to contrast with Luton's 2-2 draw there last week. It's hard to fancy the home win on the basis of that.

Luton's loss at home to Wrexham on Tuesday was a huge blow to their title hopes. It's crucial that they bounce straight back and, arguably, this is a must win for them. But at around [2.2], I consider them too short and there's little doubt in my mind that the draw is where the value lies. Avoiding another defeat is an absolute must and that one-point mentality looks safe to rely on for betting.

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Daz | 19 October 2011

Its amazing to think that people thought Luton could go through the season unbeaten given they have now lost three times. Ive seen them twice this season, the Stockport game on tv and in the flesh at Ebbsfleet and I cant say theyve impressed me on either occasion. Worth pointing out as well that they might be picking up draws away from home but the games against Bath, Hayes and Ebbsfleet were all games they were expected to win and were leading in all three only to end up with a point, that hardly strikes me as title winning performances.
Also have to be concerned with some of Brabin's team selections of late as well with the team against Ebbsfleet a very odd choice and the formation against Wrexham did themselves no favours either.