Non-league / Gary Boswell / 15 March 2011 / 2

He's watched, talked and read enough about it this season so here are the five conclusions to be drawn for the rest of the season. Bet accordingly.

Number One: Back Eastwood Town in every game they play in the BSN from now to the end of the season

The Badgers spent dosh pre-season in an attempt to be competitive in Conference North only for it to go horribly wrong early doors. Bottom six up to Xmas as the hastily assembled squad struggled to gel and recorded a string of losses and disappointing draws. The tide turned when they went to Workington's Borough Park and won a surprise three nil against pretty much every non league pundit's expectation.

They have remained unbeaten since and scored another significant win last weekend beating league leaders Nuneaton at home. Because of their league position (now risen to mid-table) prices continue to be value and striker Lee Stevenson is looking well above the class level required now that he is getting consistent service and support. Barrow went on a similar run from Xmas onwards three seasons ago and ended up getting promoted via the play-offs. Still a possibility for Eastwood Town. A real momentum side now.

Number Two: Look hard at BSP games featuring Barrow & Southport away from home

Only two victories between them all season making them among the worst on the road sides in professional football in this country. Southport were as short as [2.8] to win at Eastbourne's Langney last Saturday but the division's whipping boys smacked them 4-1 without Liam Watson's side ever really looking like they might stay the distance and protect the early 1-0 lead they took. You are of course now often getting huge prices when the Bluebirds and the Sandgrounders play away against anyone decent and Barrow in particular are worth keeping an eye on as a side who do have ability to upset the cream on occasion.

They beat Wimbledon at home and held Crawley to a draw. It's just when they go away that they become inadequate although of course the inaugural win at Forest Green on Saturday makes them a form team of the moment. With relegation still to stave off, they could well prove a value bet again for a few weeks now. Long distances to travel and part-time players is part of the explanation for the poor away form and 'oppose' is the general advice with the proviso that when the price on Barrow looks ridiculous, switch sides and back it!

Number Three: Back under 2.5 goals when York City play at Bootham Crescent

Mainly because the Minstermen have got the meanest record in the Football League's top five divisions when it comes to conceding. Eight goals against at 0.5 per game. Eleven of the sixteen home games have ended under two goal hits. A 68.75% strike rate. King of the 1-0 and 2-0 home win. They have also found form late in the season and are challenging now for an unlikely play-off place. You don't get much of a match price on their home games for obvious reasons but the under 2.5 goals is always worth a look.

Number Four: Find yourself an end of season relegation battler to follow

That's a lesson learned in every March that ever happened. And mine for this year are Eastbourne Borough in the BSP. They went on the mother of all losing runs either side of Xmas and went stone bottom for the first time in their tenure as a Premier non-league club. Bit surprised by that with Garry Wilson a manager I rate.

Corner was turned with a point at home to Histon which finally stopped the rot. They followed it with a sensational win at Fleetwood and a home tonking of Southport. Odds have now drifted again as the next two were defeats away at Wrexham and York. No disgrace in those though. Lost only by the odd goal and remained competitive away at top six opposition. Back at home next week against the team with the worst away record in the football leagues (see above!). I feel a recommended bet coming on!

Number Five: Remember AFC Wimbledon don't score early

Live on TV game coming up again on March 18th away at Crawley that had been billed as a title decider. Still could be so if the Wombles can win it but with all their games in hand and the advantage now, the Red Devils will only need a draw. Further fuel to expect little or no early commitment from them and with Terry Brown's boys' uncanny ability to save all their onion bagging for the second two thirds of a game, backing the 0-0 to hedge In-Play is a very worthwhile tactic.

There may be more live Wimbledon games on TV to come with their place in the play-offs pretty much assured and it is truly bizarre (but no co-incidence) that even when they score five - which they have done three times this season - still all the goals come late first half or during the second. Just the way Terry Brown has taught them to play and a lesson well worth anyone betting live in play keeping in mind.

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1. annoyed | 02 April 2011

   GARY BOSWELL

   ... as usual you talk rubbish , and your 'tips' are so poor its unreal.

   Cant believe you claim to be an expert ? not sure how you come to that title.
   Some of your tipping sheets are a joke.

2. the boz | 02 May 2011

   Sorry annoyed but people who don't sign their vitriol never get much respect.

   I've never claimed to be an expert. Like most, I have an opinion. A considered one.

   Like most tipsters, I stand and fall by my results. If I lose too many people too much money, I'll soon be out of work. It hasn't happened yet.

   Those who cannot take their losses should not bet.Those who blame others for them.... well annoyed, I'll leave you to work that one out.

   THE BOZ

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