Non-league Betting: BSP - home of the odds on lay

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 10 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

"I agree with my critic that [1.3] shots are there to be laid rather than backed. Especially when you think they might not win!"

Can anyone beat anyone in the BSP? If it's an outsiders paradise then why are they outsiders? Gary Boswell mulls over these questions and more while selecting the best bets from the weekend's non-league football.

I was taken to task a few weeks ago for backing Fleetwood at the derisory price of [1.3]. It caused a fair bit of debate because it won but the question remained: was it a good bet?

Can a bet be a bad bet when it wins? Yes. I agree with the criticism I received but have defended myself by explaining that it was part of a three bet strategy of which it was the only winner. Had all three won, as I expected, it would have become a better bet but in general I agree with my critic that [1.3] shots are there to be laid rather than backed. Especially when you think they might not win!

And if you're looking for a league to lay a few favourites in at the moment, look no further than Blue Square Premier. Form has become decidedly hard to read since the bad weather interruption (it wasn't easy before) and when asked for insight into which way things might go on Tuesday night, I shrugged my shoulders and glibly replied (Live on air): " At times like these, it pays to back the outsider blind."

Little did I expect Hayes to beat Oxford at [10.0], Salisbury to beat York at [6.0] and Cambridge to beat Kettering at [4.0] ensuring double figure profits for anyone following the advice (not me I regret to add). There are times when I wonder why I bother studying form!

It happened two Saturdays ago as well in this column as York's wheels started to derail, losing at home to Eastbourne, Altrincham failed to beat woeful Grays and Barrow turned the tables on current form champions Ebbsfleet. Backers of those three outsiders blind were also in double figure profits.

So what's going on? Football insiders call it an 'anybody can beat anybody' league and it is certainly true of BSP this season although you will note that while these unstable periods undoubtedly rock the match betting boat for the punter relying on form, the outrights bet remains largely unaffected. Best teams are still at the top of the league while the worst teams remain at the bottom. Need any further reasoning why the Boz plays mostly in the outrights?

I had a lay against my Oxford green position a few weeks back in the outrights and that looked to have been a mistake when the Us won three on the bounce. However, the wobble has returned with failure to beat Cambridge and Hayes in their last two and they face Kettering this Saturday where they are [1.62] to win. You know what I'm going to say about that.

In fact, I am repeating my midweek radio forecast and stating that individual game form study is a recipe for baldness (you'll pull your hair out in frustration). There is little rhyme or reason to why short priced favs aren't winning at the moment in BSP. They just aren't. The prudent maths says that Oxford [1.61], AFC Wimbledon [1.61], Crawley [1.72] , Luton [1.66], Mansfield [1.61] and Rushden [1.5] can all be laid this weekend - both in singles and maybe in multiples - with a very good chance of profit ensuing and little overall risk.

I like the chances of away wins for Gateshead at Rushden and Ebbsfleet at Crawley most of all. None, however, are exempt from the possibility of coming in at the moment.

Luton have hit form and should win at home to Wrexham but we've said that a few times this season only for the Hatters to decant. Wimbledon are a better side than Eastbourne but the Sports aren't going down without a fight and the match has possible draw written on it as does the game at Kenilworth Road. Crawley's home form should mean a win for the Devils but they play Ebbsfleet who are the most difficult of all the mercurial teams to predict.

As for Mansfield v Tamworth? Should be a home win. Probably won't be!

That's how it feels to me at the minute and when it feels like that, you ignore the football and simply play the odds.

The Boz's Best Bets:

Lay Oxford [1.61], AFC Wimbledon [1.61], Crawley [1.72] , Luton [1.66], Mansfield [1.61] and Rushden [1.5] as individual level stake singles needing just three to come in to return a profit.

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -7.20 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio. He tipped Fleetwood at [7.0] as his only selection pre-season in the BSN portfolio.