Non-League Betting: Better the devil you know

Non-league / Editor / 04 February 2010 / 2

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Luton should be opposed at 2.25 this weekend

"Final bet is a lay against the short odds on Luton at [2.25]. They must travel to Holker Street to try and pick up the pieces of their humiliation last weekend at home to Ebbsfleet. Add that to the scrappy and unconvincing 1-0 the week before at Gateshead and you cannot fancy the Hatters at the price."

Gary Boswell explains the rationale through his weekend selections in the ever-intriguing world of non-league football.

If, like me, you follow football form, you have probably had a hard time this season in non-league. It's been tough. Financial recession has hit us hard and combined with the weather over the past six weeks, any kind of continuity or winning streak in match betting has been between the devil and the deep blue sea.

There is usually a period in league football during a season that applies to most divisions where form becomes ultra reliable for betting purposes. In Non-league football, we traditionally earmark that time for December/early January but more accurately it's an amorphous 'mid-season' timespan that is very weather dependant. Because of the UK freeze this winter, and so many postponements, there is a good chance it will be delayed this year into late January/February and early signs of that are good.

My Southern snout has done ok by me and I'm regaining some confidence. Two winning weeks and a good craic at the Australian Open tennis so I have some wonga back in my pocket! He recommends swerving the BSS card this weekend though and instead has pointed me to a game in the BSP I was looking at anyway, with a couple of Northern fancies of my own.

Rushden to beat Grays looks on paper to be a banker at [1.8] with the Diamonds scoring ten in their last three and away to the fall guys from Grays. There's a word of warning though. Rushden have an appalling record at the Recreation Ground. Such things don't normally affect me balanced up against current form but when Rushden do misfire they have a tendency to draw serious blanks. Julian Dicks' boys have managed home wins against Cambridge,Tamworth and Eastbourne which reads reasonably well in the season long context and now have a last ditch campaign against relegation to get started.On balance - at the price, that's too many negatives for me so I'll stick with my two Northern fancies and my snout's Southern pick and leave Rushden alone.

The Southern fancy then is Steve Evans' Red Devils of Crawley at a value price of [2.2] or greater to beat currently-out-of-form Cambridge.

Still a small chance of play-offs for the Devils who have three wins and just one defeat in their last six whilst Martin Ling's Us have lost five of the last six with no wins in seven and just held on to their one chance of season's glory on Tuesday night with a tame 0-0 draw at home to Salisbury in the Trophy. Mid table is the only possible positive league outcome now for them and heads will be turned to staying in the Trophy draw. That one shot at Wembley could save several club's financial bacon!

Crawley look a big home price and constitute the weekend nap. Second best are Wrexham away at Eastbourne at [2.25] or bigger. The Dragons have undoubtedly started breathing fire since Andy Mangan turned up and no surprises there really. The guy got 26 in the last season where the FA let him play at this level and he's still got a yard of pace, has been coached by the inimitable Jim Harvey and without a doubt knows where the net is. If Newport are the obvious club to follow home in BSS and back blind, Wrexham are the less obvious candidate in BSP for me. Their midweek 2-1 win over Mansfield was season best form at the right sort of time.

Final bet is a lay against the short odds on Luton at [2.25]. They must travel to Holker Street to try and pick up the pieces of their humiliation last weekend at home to Ebbsfleet. Add that to the scrappy and unconvincing 1-0 the week before at Gateshead and you cannot fancy the Hatters at the price. There will be those who fancy taking the Bluebirds' price of [3.3] or greater. No denying its value but I've been at Holker Street a fair few times this season and there's no ignoring that 8 draws from 15 home games stat. I want the even steven on my side. The Hatters are still in serious difficulties with their defence so that for me, the new Bluebird forward line that contains ex-Everton trainee Nick Chadwick is highly likely to cause some further madness amongst Hatters fans.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

BACK CRAWLEY to beat CAMBRIDGE at [2.2] or greater
BACK WREXHAM to beat EASTBOURNE at [2.25] or greater
LAY LUTON against BARROW at [2.25] or less

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -3.70 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.

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Daz | 04 February 2010

Well I make Rushden one of the best bets so far this season. I was at the game where Grays beat Cambridge and it was a poor game where Grays got two fortunate goals and apart from that didnt really threaten and Cambridge were just poor. I really wouldnt read to much into that win and theyve had such a change in personal that going back to September for Grays form probably isnt reliable anyway. Grays are a team going down and Rushden a team who could sneak in the play-offs. Ive got on at 4/5 so Im happy Ive got the value. It almost looks to good to be true so we shall see what happens.
boz | 11 February 2010

Another one for you that Daz and Rushden one of the few teams to hold their form of late.
Your comment on home and away was noted aswell and I do agree with it except that it is also one I know well from the oddsmaker's days and one that I therefore look to oppose if possible. Of course, when it don't work you look a pratt as in most things!