Non-league / Gary Boswell / 18 March 2010 /

Gary Boswell tells us how the spirit of Wimbledon's old Crazy Gang lives on in the form of Dean Holdsworth's Newport County, plus the best betting opportunities from the world of non-league football.

At a pre-season workout down at Spytty Park, my Southern snout alerted me to the fact that Dean Holdsworth had his Newport County squad doing some eyecatching bonding exercises in the centre circle before the game. Not exactly Phil Brown's on-pitch dressing down but a positive version of the same idea and we watched the match to see if that philosophy of 'active team spirit promotion' was likely to work and have an impact on the upcoming season.

I don't need to tell you how it's turned out as the Exiles wrapped up the Blue Square South in record time and with an astonishing seven games still to play. The first of those is on Saturday at Thurrock and I think the oddsmakers are taking a chance posting them up at around [1.8].Looks a value price to me.

This is a team that has lost just once all season, has got better and better with each game played and has at the helm - if not a member of the old crazy gang - then a man who is seriously practising that ethos. We all know what that did for the old Wimbledon football club who still remain the only club in the modern era to make that giddy transition from non-league to genuine top flight combatants.

Holdsworth is understandably the target of a lot of league clubs after what he has achieved down at Spytty Park but I fancy Sam Foley and Co. to run the show themselves to some extent now. That's how Holdsworth has it on confidence-building and taking responsibility for own actions psychology - and they are focussed on breaking the 100 point barrier in these remaining games. They are good enough to do so and constitute the Boz banker this weekend.

The FA Trophy semi-final second legs have caught my eye. One game looks a mere formality and the other balanced deliciously on a precipice. Barrow bring a precious one goal lead back to Holker Street as they bid to emulate their 1990 Wembley success under the legendary Ray Wilkie. With the draw enough to see them through, they look a good call to me despite the fact that I have an appalling record this season at calling the Bluebird's games correctly. Usually one of my diamond teams that I see a lot but they have constantly defied me prediction-wise and you take my advice to lay Salisbury this weekend at your own risk! I think it's the bet though mainly because the Lilywhite price of [3.2] to win looks mighty short. Barrow have shored up personnel in recent weeks and with the midweek win over Wrexham seriously easing any relegation worries, they are free to focus on the job of securing the day out in the London sunshine for their loyal (and shoeless!) fan base.

The key to sorting out the mid-season slump at Barrow - which has seen them excel in the Cup competitions at the cost of league form - has been the arrival of Nick Chadwick to partner the classy Jason Walker up front. Chadwick is cup-tied, as is Lee McEvilly, who the management have also brought in to shore up goal droughts in recent weeks and effectively Barrow now have two strike forces. Walker and Greg Blundell for the Cup and McEvilly and Chadwick for the league and those options bode well for me both in the Bluebirds chances of staying in BSP (which looks assured now) and of achieving the dream win at Wembley in May.

The first goal on Saturday will be critical and should the Lilywhites get it, the game is most definitely on, but I fancy Barrow to assert early with the draw on their side and thus the short price lay on Salisbury is very appealing.

Final bet is a draw call in BSP. Not one single incidence of equality in the seven midweek BSP games ensuring perhaps a glut this Saturday and my top tip is Histon v Mansfield at odds of around [3.5]. The science of draw prediction in football remains as mysterious and intuitive as ever and I call all my powers into play every weekend on behalf of the Non-League Pools Panel and am still running at +50% success rate for this season. Which considering how badly I've been doing trying to identify winners, is very encouraging! Histon have a high home draw rate (8 from 18 in the league) and remain a decent side playing just below last season's level and face a Mansfield side for whom the point will be a welcome addition to a still possible play-off place.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

Lay Salisbury in the FA Trophy semi-final second leg against Barrow at around [3.2]
Back Newport to beat Thurrock at around [1.8]
Back the Histon v Mansfield draw at around [3.5]

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -7.69 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio.

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