Non-league / Gary Boswell / 30 March 2011 /

Carlisle and Brentford are difficult to split in the betting and cases can be made for both. The better bet is to side with a low-scoring affair, says Gary Boswell.

Plenty of betting In Play opportunities at the New Wembley on Sunday as the televised Johnstone's Paint final between North and South takes place. Picking a winner however is no clear cut task. Hardly a sliver of wafer thin mint between the two teams and the interesting sight of bookmakers making Carlisle the marginal outright betting favourites whilst the Betfair markets favour a 90 minute win for Brentford. Perhaps most tellingly, the draw is priced around the lower end of even stevens at [3.3].

I'm in the Cumbrians' camp on point of order to present the fans with some atonement for the disappointment against Southampton last season. I watch Carlisle a fair bit and can report that recent patterns and trends are very influenced by the 6-0 defeat at Peterborough a few weeks back. Manager Greg Abbott took that trouncing to heart and has been working specifically on defence tightening so that 'goals for' has become a bit of an issue in recent games. Some fans would argue that it dates back further to the transfer window release of Gary Madine to Sheffield Wednesday. Not a drought exactly and you can argue that Brentford are of a similar ilk. Neither side has a player in the top 20 League One goalscorer list (Madine just creeps in with his eleven goals now accredited to Wednesday) and thus the key stat that average goals per game for fixtures involving each this season is 2.46. A punt on the under 2.5 goals is the play for me at the pre game price of around [1.94].

There will be those that point to the better recent form of the Bees and last Friday's dress rehearsal at Griffin Park which ended in a clear cut win for Nicky Forster's squad. Loanee Jeffrey Schlupp bagged a brace and looked a handful throughout the game. A talented young German league recruit who Carlisle are going to have to get a handle on. He links particularly well with Toumani Diagouraga and the enforced absences of goalkeeper Richard Lee (Simon Moore deputising) and striker Charlie MacDonald - that initially had me thinking of a big punt on Carlisle - were largely neutralised. The signing of Trevor Carson from Sunderland would also be a significant quality acquisition for the Bees in the lead up to this with the caveat that Brentford have a side that are less settled than Carlisle's.Brentford however are the current form team after a win midweek whilst Carlisle huffed and puffed again to marginal defeat at Yeovil. In the game last Friday, Brentford floated plenty of high balls at Carlisle keeper Adam Collin that caused a flap or two to suggest that homework has been done and there is no way that Brentford are going to get blown away. A tight encounter assured.

I'd be hopeful for a Carlisle win nevertheless. In Francois Zoko, Tom Taiwo, Danny Murphy and Lubo Michalik, Greg Abbott has arguably the greater class and wisdom to call on in his squad. One also hopes that experience last season of the Wembley protocol will also perhaps give them an edge in the psychological war on the day. An extremely difficult call to be confident about all in all. So I'll be sticking to my In Play trading based on the way the game pans out with that pre-match punt on the low score as my cornerstone.

KEY STAT: League fixtures involving Carlisle and Brentford this season have averaged 2.46 goals per game.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BET:

1pt BACK of the under 2.5 goals in the JOHNSTONE'S PAINT TROPHY FINAL at around the [1.94] price mark

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