Non-league / Gary Boswell / 15 October 2007 /

Legendary Non-League football guru Gary Boswell tells us why Stevenage's price for Thursday night's televised match is wrong...again.

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Sometimes I'm sure the oddsmakers don't watch the football. Four weeks ago, I lambasted them for making Stevenage 1.72 at home to Cambridge - a game Boro duly lost. Since then they've lost again at Forest Green and Torquay - conceding eight goals in the process - and limped to a poor draw at home to Woking.

Thursday night, live on Setanta, they take on a side proving even more difficult to beat than Cambridge - in Nigel's Clough's Burton Albion. I'll be going at least 2.6 on a Stevenage win but the 'talking horse' of Broadhall Way is a difficult reputation to lose and Mark Stimson's men are odds-on again. You hardly need me to tell you which way to bet. Burton have been drawing a few games that they should be winning and their title aspirations are suffering a little from the need to get that win/draw ratio right.

It is a factor that scuppered Oxford last season and I expect Nigel Clough to be aware of it so that the 4.0 or better that you can get about a Burton win in this game represents what can honestly be called GENUINE VALUE! As a cautious punter, I'll be wanting to keep the draw on my side and the offer to LAY Stevenage at shorter than evens will be gobbled up.

Personality comes into betting a great deal and I expect those less cautious than me to go all out for the terrific value that the win bet on Burton represents. Unbeaten in thirteen - with Keith Gilroy still causing menace down the left and Goodfellow and Goodings showing real talent in midfield, Burton can negate the threat that Stevenage pose up front and instead concentrate on exposing the frail Borough back four. Astute Conference watchers already have the Premier title fight down to a Burton-Torquay shootout. It may be a bit premature to be calling that yet and the only thing you need to concentrate on this week is the way in which Stevenage are posted up at the wrong price.

Remember also that the game is live on telly and can be treated as an inplay opportunity - the most significant factor to remember in this respect is the tendency Burton have for late goals. Twice this season they have turned a 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 win within the last ten minutes and their propensity for late equalisers and goals in added time is a Conference legend. This is a team that never stops battling, never knows when it's beat and should never be backed against when it's behind. Indeed, should a Stevenage lead occur, the Boswell piggy bank will seriously be pouring on to Burton at the spectacular inplay odds that you will get.

Tuesday night's Live game between Halifax and Grays presents far less interest and a much thornier problem for punters.The Shaymen are still to lose at home and have a tradition of making Shay Stadium represent its namesake in America where the Beatles once boasted an unbeaten record! 2.0 would seem a fair price about three more points for Chris Wilder's troops.

Trouble is that Justin Edinburgh's Grays are proving an 'on the road' side with only one win at home but three wins from seven away. 3.25 might be a value about the three points going back to Essex but neither side has won in its last five and it's not a game I feel all that sure about. Grays have transfer-listed four players this week - including the impressive Andy Sambrook - and Edinburgh is definitely under pressure for his job but that sort of thing can work either way in terms of strengthening or weakening a team's resolve . NO BET is therefore the recommendation.

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4pt LAY on Stevenage against Burton

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