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Have you got the bottle to lay Torquay again?

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A preview of Monday and Tuesday night's Blue Square Premier Play-off semi-final second legs by Gary Boswell

Which is the greater negative? Torquay manager Paul Buckle's failure to rise above being spat at by mindless Exeter fans who have failed to forgive him for the perceived 'desertion' at the end of last season? The fact that he took a few star players - most notably striker Lee Phillips - with him obviously still rankles with a few Grecian, so-called, fans.

Or was it worse to see the Grecians' well known griper, Lee Elam, failing to take Thursday's last minute defeat like a gentleman and getting himself caught on camera starting something untoward with Torquay striker Tim Sills?

The side who best keeps their cool in the hothouse that Plainmoor is sure to become tonight is likely to prevail. Buckle's concentrating on wanting to obtain retribution on his spitters rather than celebrating the fortuity of Zebroski's late winner strikes me as a bad sign for the Gulls who are far from a Wembley double header yet.

Worth remembering that Exeter overturned a first leg deficit in last year's play-off semi-finals and were actually 2-0 down in the second half against Oxford at the Kassam.

If you took my argument for laying Torquay in the outrights seriously before last Thursday's game, you'll be interested to note that the current lay price on the Gulls is down now to [2.66]. Have you got the bottle to lay them again now at that preferential price? The same arguments apply and they are far from a sure thing to see things out at Plainmoor for me tonight. I expect Exeter to play uninhibited stuff (and there will be goals again so that the constant lay on the No Goal in the inplay next goal market is likely to reap reward again) and if the luck that deserted them on Thursday should return, there's every chance that they will make their superiority tell this time.

They were the best team for much of Thursday night and I still think Torquay have a lot to prove in this game. That's not even allowing for the fact they also have to get past the winners of the Burton-Cambridge showdown before being able to claim their place back in the football league. Still not my idea of favourites to do that even with the one goal advantage they hold over everybody else at this stage. Boz has got the bottle to lay them again and sees it as a chance to lever a bit more profit for even less risk. An early advantage to Torquay just makes them an even better lay is how I see it.

Match odds betting didn't work out for me in the first legs and I'll be leaving them alone in the second legs in search of easier options. Laying no goal is the play in the Torquay-Exeter fixture and Tuesday's Cambridge-Burton tie at the newly named Trade Recruitment Stadium (what a travesty that is!!) is the same. Goals were in plentiful supply at the Pirelli (one of the more snappy commercial names for a stadium!) where Burton undoubtedly got a raw deal from the officials and are not going into this with the advantage they perhaps deserved.

Cambridge are the best defensive outfit in these play-offs and will be disappointed with the two concedes on Friday but 0-0 will be no use to them in this and Burton are not noted for their goalless exploits either so that laying No goal on the inplay Next goal market is the best policy in this one too.

Cautious punters tell me that in Live betting matches, it is possible to create arbitrages on Betfair markets by backing the draw in the match odds as a hedge saver against the lay on the no goal in games where goals are expected whilst the reverse policy is a sound mathematical ploy in games where no goals are a possibility. I've been watching that in the Setanta games throughout this non-league season and can report that it is indeed something to keep one's eye on!

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1pt LAYS on the NO GOAL in the InPlay Next Goal markets - both Torquay-Exeter and Cambridge-Burton games.
2pt further LAY on TORQUAY in the promotion outrights at [2.66]