Get on Forest Green as the layers can't see the woods for the trees

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 16 August 2007 / Leave a Comment

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season.He scored 100% success rate with his tips for Betfair in last season's Conference South and also correctly identified all three Conference play-off winners - Salisbury,Farsley Celtic & Morecambe).

It's a case of scrapping for your life at Moss Lane this season as Graham Heathcote's Altrincham side strive to prove that the theory of giving relegated sides a reprieve - something you sadly see a lot of in non-league - is not FA folly. The Robins were relegated fair and square last season and look no better on paper this year so there's a strong argument for profit being made in opposing them every week.

Trouble with that is the presence of a couple of Conference stalwarts - namely Val Owen and Colin Little - who do bring a bit of class to what the Mancunians call their 'Southern contingent'.
The Robins are notorious for upsetting banker bets and in Graham Heathcote, they have a general who has certainly got to be respected even when he's fielding a side he admits should be playing at a level lower. The early candidates for champions, Exeter, struggled to get past them first half last Saturday and went in one down at half time. In midweek, it was Halifax's turn to feel the force as Little put on a masterclass to overturn a two goal deficit at the Shay.

Consequently, opposing the Robins is never done lightly but they travel to Forest Green this weekend and that has sent my betting antennae a-quiver. Rovers have not really lived up to potential of their first two games largely due to Jim Harvey's inability to recognise what a good side he's put together for this season. They were tentative at Oxford on opening day and paid the price and then, after unleashing what is undoubtedly a potent attacking game against Weymouth on Tuesday - and going three up in twenty minutes - they then sat back and nearly squandered the points.

In truth that game ended 3-2 but could easily have been 6-6 as Forest Green looked so lethal going forward but had a terrible case of jitters late on at the back.
A risky home win then on FGR but I'm convinced this is the first time this season that the Cotswold class comes up against much lesser overall opposition. And the main reason for napping is the price. Bookmakers still consider FGR a Conference minnow so you can expect several to be happy to Lay Rovers at evens. This is a false price in my book and I'll be backing with a bucket load.

Second best bet this weekend is a Lay on Alfreton in the Blue Square North. They play host to a rampant Southport for whom Neil Prince and Tony Gray have already proved to be that yoyo type of player - too good for this level, not quite good enough at Premier. Added to them is the Sandgrounder signing of the summer, Joel Byram, who has come in from Clitheroe and gets up and heads with the old fashioned bullet from a gun precision. Along with Steve Waywell's Hyde, the Sandgrounders are looking like early runners for the North Championship and must be in your portfolio. They will be around 2.2 correct price to win at Alfreton but I'll stick with the home lay to keep the draw on my side and I recommend taking anything offered up to 3.2.

Final bet is a small back on Eastbourne Borough in the Blue Square South. Three goals in two games for Andy Atkins has secured a sound start for last season's unlucky losers who were beaten only twice at home and are expected to have two many guns for Johnson Hippolyte's Maidenhead.

RECOMMENDATIONS:
3pt BACK on Forest Green at 2.0 or better
1pt LAY on Alfreton at 3.2 or under
0.5pt BACK on Eastbourne Borough