Fill up your wheelbarrow with profit by siding with Barrow and the draw

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 06 December 2007 /

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Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Three home bankers in the Blue Square fixture lists this weekend. Aldershot look sure to build on the four point lead in the Premier established last weekend as they play host to struggling Stafford. Torquay follow up on Sunday with a home tie against Altrincham that they must be expected to win and in the Blue Square South, Eastbourne Borough have a gimme at home to Bognor Regis.
They are the three stand-out predictable results and as usual for punters, there is the decision to play or not to play on what are sure to be skinny prices. Are you a lover of the speculative value bet or the 'racing cert'?

Value has always been my natural inclination as a punter and for that this weekend I've raided the Blue Square North and identified what could be one of those rare beasts - both a speculative value and a 'racing cert'! Of course, the latter is only my opinion at this stage and if it doesn't win, it will only prove to be a case of the powers that be pricing up incorrectly.

Of course I can't be totally sure they'll win, but I am totally sure that the price on Barrow to beat Kettering at Holker Street is wrong. As I write, it looks sure to be offered at [3.5] or even better based on the fact that Barrow are a low to mid table team with current form of just seven points from their last six games in the league. Kettering at the other extreme are champions-elect with much better current form on the face of it - thirteen points from their last six games.

Those are the bold stats on which oddsmakers have priced up and Kettering are likely to kick off with 2.1 or slightly greater on a Poppies three pointer.

If you've read this blog over recent weeks, you'll know why the Barrow price is false. My followers picked up on them against Burscough who were also favourites to win at Holker Street and were 4-0 down at half time.

Barrow's improvement since the demise of manager Phil Wilson has continued since then. I was disappointed that they didn't win at [3.75] last weekend at Worcester but a study of the match report confirms that the 1-1 draw did not reflect the Bluebird's superiority in the game. Woodwork and a serious performance by the Worcester goalkeeper rescued the odds on favourites a point.

Barrow have played again in midweek and reversed the score against Southport in the Setanta Shield - a team who knocked them out of the FA Trophy before Wilson was sacked - a clear indication of the way in which Barrow's immediate form has improved drastically and that the price against Kettering is not reflecting it.

The bonus for Boswell followers is that Kettering also come into the game on a slight negative. Current results have seen them drawing games they might have been expected to win so that they've dropped off the top of the table. Cause for this is speculation but probably to do with infamous chairman Imran Ladak taking his eye off the pitch again and starting ructions with the Conference authorities and the press. It is to do with player registrations and it has very little to do with what players and manager need to focus on. Ladak does this on a regular basis and Kettering form invariably suffers.

Great time to be taking Kettering on and great news for us that they are away to Barrow this weekend. A Boz maximum bet. I'll play cautious as ever and keep the draw on my side. I believe it is the best Kettering can expect against a Barrow attack that contains an on-fire Nick Rogan and a player in Jason Walker who is clearly of better class than this league is used to. Walker plied his trade in the Scottish Premier at Dundee and then regularly in Scottish second division with Greenock Morton before a dodgy knee brought him back to his home town to recuperate.

Kettering are short enough to Lay and you can lay them with confidence.

RECOMMENDATION:

5pt Lay on Kettering at 2.2 or under away at Barrow

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