Favourites don't like being filmed so go ahead and lay them

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 28 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Boswell's bi-weekly Non-League Betfair Blog

Stalybridge Celtic were the sixteenth favourite out of twenty two this season to fail to deliver in front of the Live Setanta cameras on Thursday night. Seasoned gamblers will know that making a profit backing favourites in football match betting requires a strike rate over and above 50% given the odds you get.

With a strike rate of just 27%, it's pretty clear that those laying the favs are making a mint. When weighing up likely outcomes of any particular football game, I try not to take such patterns into account but this is a hard statistic to ignore. And like all stats, there has to be a reason for it. Is that reason likely to continue is the question because if so, we can all abandon our form study and simply lay the favs in the TV games and holiday on the proceeds!

I quite strongly fancied Celtic Thursday. They are a team I watch a lot and I even attended their warm up game at Redditch the previous weekend to assess their current form which was way above that of Blyth Spartans.

So what went wrong for Burr's boys in front of the cameras - a game the bookies had them odds on for - a game they were expected to win by all form students - a game Blyth surely could not be expected to pinch given their appalling scoring record this season.

And the answer is not a great deal went wrong. Adam Bartlett had an excellent game in the Blyth goal and Stalybridge failed to penetrate the Blyth defence for the second time this season. They didn't concede despite giving away a penalty and the game finished drawn in ninety minutes as seven of the other Live games have - the around 33% draws of any selected list of football results you'd care to analyse.

It's possible Celtic suffered from freezing in front of the cameras. These are players unused to the glare of media coverage by and large and the psychological pressure of performing in a way that could enhance their careers might be collectively getting to them. I was of the opinion that was the case earlier in the season when Forest Green inexplicably played well below their capabilities Live on Telly against Salisbury.

There is though also the fact that this is non-league football. My years of betting in this genre have taught me to expect the unexpected without explanation on a fairly regular basis. These are not fully fledged full time sportsmen from whom consistent performances can be expected. The game is peppered with part-timers, both on the field and off, for whom other life considerations can often take priority.

Bottom line is that a quick check of any set of non-league results over the seven years I've been studying shows that expecting a 50% plus strike rate on likely favourites is cloud cuckoo land. Which of course explains why I'm generally an opposing the favs man (although sometimes I need to remind myself of the fact)!

With hindsight, it wasn't a totally unexpected result and yet the fav backers who took screaming odds on (in my defence I hung out for even money!) had egg on their faces. The layers snapped shut their bulging wallets, licking a sliver of cream from the corner of their lips.

Take heed.

It's the second round Setanta shield game Live on Setanta Monday night. Kettering are early price 1.56.Boston 5.0 and 3.5 the draw. Mark Cooper's troops have been winning all season with standing Poppy fixture Brett Solkhon continuing to impress whilst goalkeeper Lee Harper and ex-Paris St Germain futsal international Jean Paul Marna also feature in my Blue Square North dream team.

On paper and on current form, Tommy Taylor's Boston United - poor away from home - have no chance but I won't be ignoring that stat, not on your nelly!
It's Live on the Telly and I'm one of those guys who has to have a holiday each year!

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Lay the fav!