Non-league / Gary Boswell / 01 October 2007 /

Gary Boswell tells us why the Betfair market has overreacted to Torquay's promising start

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season).

THE TIME HAS COME TO TAKE ON TORQUAY

It's all a question of interpretation. Paul Buckle's Gulls have squeaked their last three games (5-4 against Histon, 3-2 against Weymouth and 2-1 against Droylsden) to haul themselves back to the top of the Blue Square Premier. All three were a struggle against the league's lesser lights and it's a question of whether you see that nine point haul as the mark of Champions elect - winning when they are not playing well - or the mark of a false fav about to get its come-uppance.

They are predictably very short for the BSP title now and the time has come to consider the LAY in the outrights if, like me, you think their championship credentials have yet to be tested.
The next five games present serious opposition. Ebbsfleet away followed by Oxford,Stevenage,resurgent York and Cambridge Utd. Nine points from that line-up should keep them top with the four point cushion they've established but I have my doubts whether they can achieve that kind of haul. Plenty of question marks still in my mind principally concerning the goalkeeper Simon Rayner and his defence. Eighteen goals conceded in thirteen games and the one time so far that they have faced a potential Championship defence at Burton resulted in their one defeat. Rayner committed the bloop that set Burton on the scoresheet that day and has ricked a couple more times since.

I think there is a good chance that the points haul from those five games could be as low as six which would open the way for those around to work their way back to the top when the Torquay price is likely to drift again. Time therefore now to Lay them heavily with the option to hedge back as the season progresses. It does seem that Torquay are destined to be part of the mix with the way Sills and Phillips are firing up front with Zebroski and Hargreaves also providing quality engine room in midfield. I remain unsure, however, that they have the requisite defence required to win a league as competitive as this.

Three games on Tuesday night that look likely to go with the form book. Big games for Burton and Aldershot in their quest to keep tabs on Torquay and both look likely to win at cramped odds. Likewise Kidderminster - despite another of the league's suspect goalkeepers in Mackenzie - look nailed on to continue the doom and gloom in Cheshire where Connet's Northwich Victoria are having more trouble in the boardroom than Northern Rock!
"....How can you spend our savings on players when our savings have already been spent!"

Match betting best left to Thursday's Live on Setanta game between Woking and Farsley.

The Cards have played six, drawn five at home this season which is the sort of form stat you cannot ignore. Some of the draws have been against top six opposition so that they are not a team easily written off and Lee Sinnot's Farsley are not as high up the league after a quarter of their games as some - including myself - had hoped. The acquisition of Chris Billy in midfield has toughened the Yorkshiremen's stance however. Billy is a good get at this level coming down from Carlisle in League One. Results at Throstle Nest have also been solid overall so that the league position does insult them slightly and I think they can be expected to deal the Cards a difficult hand and the draw and/or a Lay on the short priced fav looks the way to play with usual inplay hedging hopefully available.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

5pt LAY ON TORQUAY in the BSP outright at 3.5 or less

1pt BACK The Woking-Farsley draw
1pt LAY on Woking

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