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Non-league

Don't bank on the Shots in a shoot-out

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Non-league expert Gary Boswell talks us through this week's betting and gives us his theory on pnealty shoot-out betting

I've looked long and hard for ways to oppose BSP champions elect Aldershot in Tuesday night's Setanta Shield Southern Area Final being shown Live on Setanta. Their match price of [1.58] is pretty unappealing whereas the [6.5] on Woking is definitely of interest.

Trouble is that the form all points to Aldershot. These two sides are traditional rivals and games are always close but the Shots have a definite edge as current league positions affirm.Both league games were won by a single goal which points to the all things possible angle in a cup tie and Aldershot are also fresh from their exit in the FA Trophy which ended their aspirations for the season's treble. They surely can get beat.

I just wish Woking were coming to this game in better shape. Just two points from their last six league games has them bottom of the current form table. Have they been saving themselves for this? Fair to say that they are relatively safe from a league relegation fight so that theory is plausible. They also have the distinction of being defending champions with a crown to retain. When this competition was last fought for, Woking won it and that psychological fillip is perhaps the best I can come up with in trying to convince myself that the Cards are worth supporting.

On the pitch, they are outclassed in every department with the possible exception of Marvin Morgan - a striker capable of mayhem on his day. Other than that, I expect Woking to defend in numbers and attempt to frustrate the Shots and hit them with the odd counter. It worked for Ebbsfleet on Saturday and proved at least that the Shots' colours can be lowered.

Aldershot do in actual fact have a poor record in games where they go behind so worth keeping an eye on inplay odds should Woking nick an early goal. The other thing to keep an eye on is if it goes to a penalty shoot out. Shots fans won't need to be reminded of the four in a row missed in the 2004 play-off final shoot out against Shrewsbury nor the even more painful capitulation against Carlisle in 2006 when leading 3-1 with two to take. Both missed followed by a sudden death howler from John Challinor. The Boz will never forget that game - my biggest ever collect on a shoot out system I employ which works from the premise of laying to level stakes the side that takes a shoot out lead. Of course, the system loses if the side in the lead hangs on but my assertion is that a side that squanders a shoot out lead is sufficiently psychologically harmed that they always go on to lose. I've never known it fail. Spurs proved it against PSV last week.They were laid at 1.1.

Aldershot don't like penalty shoot-outs. If they take the lead in one on Tuesday night, the Boz will be ready!!!

Two home bankers worth a peek in the Blue Square South. On Tuesday night, Garry Wilson's Eastbourne Borough can pile more misery on wobbling title rivals Lewes with a win against Hayes & Yeading. On Wednesday night, Peter Beadle's Newport County can follow up their historic FAW Cup Final win against Llanelli last week by cementing their Blue Square South play-off position with a win against Welling at Spytty Park.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1pt BACK on Eastbourne Borough to beat Hayes & Yeading
1pt BACK on Newport County to beat Welling

p.s. During the research for this blog, The Boz discovered who is attributed with scoring the first ever shoot-out penalty in official UK football under FA jurisdiction.
Any guesses? Answer in Thursday's blog!