Non-league / Gary Boswell / 19 December 2007 /

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Unless you backed Dorchester and/or opposed Stevenage in last weekend's FA Trophy fixtures, you will not be very impressed with my theory that the big boys in the BSP can be opposed in the early rounds of the Cup competitions.

I'll be the first to admit that I did not consider the holders of the Trophy to be prime candidates for the shock de-bagging but at least their exit (and Tuesday night's exit of Oxford) gives some credence to my position where my actual bets and tips did not!!

With hindsight of course it is possible to see that Stevenage are still vulnerable to the exodus of players that followed Mark Stimson. The arrival of Peter Taylor ought to be a positive for the Borough faithful but there is no real indication yet that it is going to be so and they must be considered among the candidates for a shock defeat again this weekend as we ponder the fourth round of Setanta Shield games. A tricky visit to neighbours and draw specialists Woking is the order of the day and with extra time and penalties on the agenda, I wouldn't want to be a Boro fan this weekend!

Can we continue down the line of not trusting the form book for these Setanta Shield games? Despite no luck last weekend, I'm inclined to think so. The sponsors have insisted that this competition be taken seriously to the extent of introducing a rule binding clubs to fielding at least ten squad players who featured in the team's last league game which is tantamount to an admission of worry that the competition will not be taken sufficiently seriously by all.

Individual fixtures are therefore a minefield for punters and I would not blame anyone who decided to keep their hands in their pockets but I have been lured into the Burton-Tamworth fixture simply because of its status as the Live on Television game where it is more difficult to believe that clubs won't be giving it 100%.

I can't see Cloughie being happy with anyone selling themselves short in front of the cameras but if the odds are correct, that's not an issue anyway as the Brewers are screaming odds on - as short as [1.4] in places with a generous [7.0] the Lambs.

Tamworth are obviously the minnow on this season's league form. Their status as pre-season favourites for the Blue Square North has proved predictably false and mid-table looks the best that can be expected following the exodus of manager Mark Cooper. His replacement Gary Mills has opted for experience in his signings and the presence of Des Lyttle, Adie Smith and now striker Kirk Jackson makes the Tamworth team look quite strong on paper. The point being that it would have been 100% stronger five years ago! The ravages of time makes tortoise out of the sprightliest hare!

I do not particularly fancy Tamworth but I did not fancy Dorchester - a poorer team than Tamworth - to beat Stevenage. The shocks can and will happen in this round of the Setanta Shield so I will be staying faithful to that and opposing Burton and playing very much in the live in-play markets - securing myself a lock in profit in the event of Tamworth taking the lead. That's never a certainty in any game but it's always a value call and seems a reasonable strategy in this game of uncertainties. I'll bet on Des Lyttle and Adie Smith having enough experience at the back to blunt Clare and co in the early exchanges and hope for Kirk Jackson to exercise his old talents at the other end. Tamworth only need to win the first twenty minutes or so for this strategy to yield profit. What happens from then on can be enjoyed as a spectacle and will undoubtedly depend on just how wound up to win Nigel Clough has his superior side.

RECOMMENDATION:

1pt Lay of Burton at 1.56 or less to be hedged in play in the event of Tamworth taking the lead and/or the game staying at 0-0.

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