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Non-league

Braintree and Barrow consistent enough to encourage a bet

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Gary Boswell picks out the best bets in non-league footy...

Your guess is as good as mine regarding tonight's Live on Setanta game between Stevenage and Kidderminster. The results in the Blue Square Premier over the past ten days have been totally unpredictable in a way that causes the Boz to run for the cover of his portfolio approach!

Long term reading of the league is my preferred betting strategy for the very reason that football match betting is a case of playing to tight margins. Showing a consistent long term profit is a serious challenge. There are times in non-league football when that challenge becomes too great as the inconsistency that part-time players bring to the game kicks in. I work on a panel that specialises in match prediction and over the past ten days, the hit rate has dropped to below 20% success in the BSP - a clear signal to withdraw back to the trenches!

The odds of [1.96] on a Stevenage win, [4.6] Kidderminster and [3.6] the draw seem fair enough. Borough have a strong home record with only two defeats all season. But can you be comfortable taking odds on with a side unable to beat lowly Weymouth at the weekend? Just two wins in their last six hardly inspires and I've seen enough of Borough since Peter Taylor took over to know that scoring goals has become a problem. I'd already taken the decision to avoid backing them again this season and regular readers will know that they are traditionally a heavily over-bet non-league side. Their price is never great in the value stakes.

Kidderminster at [4.6] perhaps represents value given that the Harriers have won their last two. That constitutes good current form the way things stand in the BSP at the moment! If you must bet, a small play that way makes sense but be warned that Kidderminster are the very epitomy of inconsistency this season. If they do win, it will be the first time all season that they've managed three in a row!

With 39.5 points profit coming in on the Aldershot title win, it has to be tempting to shut up shop in the BSP now. I've had a few emails asking whether I'll be hedging the Shots at the [1.29] now available to lay on the outrights with Betfair, to ensure that the outrights market 'goes green'. Such decisions are all part of the balancing act of portfolio betting and I won't be criticising anyone who is tempted. Boz is hanging on to all 39.5 points though as the five game turn around in just eleven remaining games (four in twelve in Torquay's case) does not come into realms of probability from where I'm sitting. The Shots are showing absolutely no signs of a monster wobble that would be required for them to lose the title now.

And so the Boz turns his attention to Blue Square North and South this weekend. Star bet is in the South where Lee Patterson's Braintree put themselves into the play-off picture again midweek with a fantastic 3-0 thumping of league leaders Lewes. They visit Basingstoke on Saturday who are quite simply a side in free-fall. Just two points from the last six games and players deserting faster than rats with the runs. Manager Francis Vines announced at the weekend that he was off too at the end of the season - such is the dire financial strait that 'Stoke have got themselves into. Cautious punters will lay them at the weekend but with Braintree playing so well and focussed on regaining their play-off spot, I'm recommending a back on the 'cerebral trees' at any price better than [2.25].

Nap in the North comes in the Nuneaton-Barrow game where the Bluebirds are [4.5] to keep their run of good form going. Unbeaten in their last six and with Henney, Rogan and Walker looking the best strike force in the division at the moment, it is tempting to go all out for another Barrow win. Nuneaton are themselves in form, however, and likely to be going all out to keep their play-off dream alive. They represent no value at odds on against a Barrow side who have become extremely difficult to beat and have an impressive 50% draw rate on the road. Small lay of Borough at odds on is the way to play.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

2pt BACK on Braintree at [2.25] to beat Basingstoke

1.5pt LAY on Nuneaton Borough at [1.9] or shorter versus Barrow