Boswell's Non-League Blog: Blue Square Premier Outrights Portfolio

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 25 November 2007 / Leave a Comment

Gary Boswell assesses the season's punting so far

Team Date Recommended Points & Price Current Balance

Burton Albion 8 Aug/15 Sep 1@13.0/10@13.0 +140
Forest Green 8 Aug 1@60.0 +57
Aldershot 6 Sep 1@17.0 +14
Cambridge United 6 Sep 1@15.0 +12
Rushden & Diam 8 Aug 1@14.0 +11
Oxford 8 Aug L1@6.0 - 9
Stevenage 8 Aug/8 Oct L1@6.5/L5@3.5 -27
Torquay 8 Aug/1 Oct L1@10.0/L5@3.5 -30.5
Farsley Celtic 8 Aug 1@151.0 +148
The Rest/No Play -3

The FA Cup exploits of the past few weeks have thankfully put my match betting recommendations for the season back into profit but those following my season-long performance will know that I always achieve the greater percentage of my profits from the Outrights portfolios. I have been pouring most of my study and effort this season into the open Blue Square Premier and with the half way mark approaching, it is worth a review. Two games last week convinced me of the need for a portfolio tweak.

The table above shows where we are at and if you discard the pre-season punts on Rushden and Farsley and the Lay on Oxford - with these three teams no longer of concern in the title race - you can see that we have four of the top six as plusses and two as minus and I remain convinced in footballing terms that we are with and against the right teams and that we are on course to show profit in the end.

It remains open but Stevenage and Torquay continue to demonstrate defensive frailty and we can confidently continue to oppose them. The title lies between the other four and my only concern now is that my early weightings in favour of Burton and Forest Green need revising. Last weeks performances convinced me that Aldershot and Cambridge can be elevated from third and fourth in the pecking order and that we should seek to maximise profits on these two from now on. Burton have been a slight disappointment. They dropped six points in their identified 'easy six games' and have suffered home defeats to Kidderminster and Cambridge that have seriously dented title hopes. Still a long way to go of course but whilst Burton have battled well against adversity in games and picked up a point from an imminent defeat, I've been more impressed with Aldershot's way of collecting three points against lesser opposition in games they have failed to dominate - a clear indication of a Championship mentality - and Cambridge, whilst themselves drawing too many, have achieved away victories at Stevenage,Torquay and Burton in recent weeks - a feat not to be sniffed at.

With profits weighted heavily in favour of Burton, I'm now looking to move some of that projected profit toward Aldershot and Cambridge and increase their winnings in my portfolio generally.

Several ways to do that.Main ones are to Lay a chunk on Burton back. I haven't given up on them yet but the ten point Back was an overstake with hindsight so I will be posting 8pts of that back at [13.0]. Might not be taken immediately as prices currently stand after the defeat against Cambridge but I'll leave it there for a few weeks now in the hope that their form will bring them back down in price in and around Christmas. I have a general aversion to laying back at prices greater than those taken!!

I'm against Laying on Forest Green as they remain a dark horse but the price on Torquay [2.86] especially and Stevenage to a lesser extent means some adding to the Aldershot/Cambridge profits can be achieved by further laying there. My preferred method, however, is to sacrifice some of the Burton plus and maintain liabilities elsewhere by simple further Backs on Aldershot and Cambridge at the current prices of [4.1] and [8.6]

RECOMMENDATIONS:
8pt LAY on Burton at 13.0
5pt BACK on Aldershot at 4.1
3pt BACK on Cambridge at 8.6

Table after these tweaks reads as follows: .

Burton Albion 8 Aug/15 Sep 1@13.0/10@13.0 +36
Forest Green 8 Aug 1@60.0 +57
Aldershot 6 Sep 1@17.0 +39.5
Cambridge United 6 Sep 1@15.0 +37.8
Rushden & Diam 8 Aug 1@14.0 +11
Oxford 8 Aug L1@6.0 - 9
Stevenage 8 Aug/8 Oct L1@6.5/L5@3.5 -27
Torquay 8 Aug/1 Oct L1@10.0/L5@3.5 -30.5
Farsley Celtic 8 Aug 1@151.0 +148
The Rest/No Play -3

The midweek match betting is easy this week. If you've been reading this column all season, you'll know there's no way I can take [1.5] about Stevenage in Monday night's Live on Setanta even when they are playing lowly Altrincham! I actually rate Alty's current form. The goal they scored in the FA Cup against Millwall impressed me as a training ground special and with Stevenage suffering the expected player exodus following Mark Stimson's defection to Gillingham, there could be a shock on here. Boro are going to miss Miller and Nutter terribly and I recommend a chunky lay at the [1.55] currently on offer.

I also take Barrow to beat Burscough in the Blue Square North on Tuesday Night. The Bluebirds were desperately unlucky not to land our monster FA Cup bet shock last Tuesday with Jason Walker and Nick Rogan's goals good enough to deserve victory on their own. The sacking of drippy manager Phil Wilson has brought the best out of the tenacious Cumbrians and they have a side that seriously belies their league position. They will start climbing now starting with this win against a tough but not particularly talented Burscough eleven.

MATCH BET RECOMMENDATIONS:
3pt LAY on Stevenage at 1.55 versus Altrincham
2pt BACK on Barrow to beat Burscough