Blue Square Premier Betting: Is the title heading to Wrexham?

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 12 December 2011 /

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Wrexham fans may have plenty to cheer about come May

"Andy Morrell has been impressive since he took over from Dean Saunders at the Racecourse and with the supporters in charge of the purse strings at last, perhaps the negatives in North Wales are receding and Wrexham can be fancied to win the title after all."

Halfway through the BSBP season and it's worth a look at the battle to be top dog to see if there is any tweaking needed to be done to the portfolio position. Gary Boswell reveals all.

Halfway through the BSBP season and worth a look at the battle to be top dog to see if there is any tweaking needed to be done to the portfolio position.

Most pundits and game watchers are calling Fleetwood the winner already and the market agrees with the Cod Army as short as [2.32] now to lift the silverware in May. I opposed them as too short at the start of the season and whilst I cannot deny that they are a danger, that's still my feeling about them. This has been a far more open Conference Premier than in recent years and arguably is far more open than it looks on paper. It is not difficult to come up with negatives about all the sides still in with a chance so that mathematics might be a better friend to you than footballing nous in making sure that you are on a winner. As always, seeking out the value is the wisest play.

I remain dubious about taking a short price on Fleetwood because the two games I've seen in the flesh this season portrayed them as a long way away from title-winners material. At Holker Street, they were undone simply by a mid table Barrow who spotted a defensive weakness and ruthlessly exploited it all evening for a 4-0 battering. The other was the 0-0 at home to Forest Green, who have admittedly been one of the early season surprise packages but came to Highbury that day to frustrate and achieved it easily.

At times when I've seen them on the telly, Fleetwood have looked the business and of all those in contention, their off pitch profile looks most secure. Andy Pilley's investment over the past three years has been ambitiously consistent whilst also patient and sensible. As with Burton Albion and Morecambe before them, Fleetwood would be going up into League football with a sustainable financial infrastructure and that counts for an awful lot in the current climate.

Back to the maths though and the footballing nous which is where my doubts about supporting Fleetwood lie. The table and the pundits have it between Fleetwood and Wrexham, who have a three or four game swing on the chasing pack of York, Southport, Cambridge, Gateshead, Luton and Kidderminster.

Of those, York look too short for their chance at [6.0] (more of a lay price to me), Gateshead and Southport do not have the off pitch stability in place and both Luton and Kidderminster lack the squad depth.

Only Cambridge strike me as the sort who could effect a four game swing. It's a tough ask because there are two teams to catch but at [25.0], you are getting a fair price. Like Luton, the Us have set up to avoid defeat away and built something of a fortress at home and they have done it more effectively than the Hatters so far, with only one home defeat and an impressive four wins and six draws on the road.You can back them with confidence away again this weekend as they visit beleaguered Darlington - one of many teams whose finances mean that most of their best players are out on loan!

I do agree however that the likely champ is already in the top two teams and it's a case of which one.With Fleetwood's head turned toward that FA Cup 3rd round draw, whichever way it goes against Yeovil, might work against their league focus, especially with the Xmas double header against overachieving derby rivals Southport coming up. They'll do well to get four points from those and with the game in hand three points also to bag, things are piling up for the Cod and that may hand the Welsh Dragons a New Year initiative.

Andy Morrell has been impressive since he took over from Dean Saunders at the Racecourse and with the supporters in charge of the purse strings at last, perhaps the negatives in North Wales are receding and Wrexham can be fancied to win the title after all. At [3.85], they are my idea of much better value than Fleetwood in what is perhaps a two and a half horse race!

Gary Boswell's recommended bets:

1pt WREXHAM at [3.85]
& 0.5pt CAMBRIDGE at [25.0] in the BSBP winner market

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