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Gary Boswell is in a good run of form. What does he fancy this week then?

75% strike rate and a plus 18 point profit to advised stakes in the last three weeks, Gary Boswell remains the man in form......

Daz reckoned I was lucky in last Thursday night's Live on Setanta because I tipped up the clearly inferior Halifax Town to beat Ebbsfleet - an eventuality that came about largely because the referee denied the Fleet as clear a penalty handball as the television cameras are ever likely to see. Oh, and he contentiously red carded Sacha Opinel making it 11 v 10 for over an hour.

Then he gave the Shaymen a spot kick they hardly deserved. I actually thought my luck was out when Lance Cronin saved it but Daz was right - the footballing Gods were shining on me as the Fleet's far superior class and work rate could not translate into a goal whilst the Shaymen's guts and endeavour did eventuality result in Simon Heslop providing the games only moment of joy to keep my current good form going.

After enduring a terrible run of luck around and after Xmas, I reckon I've earned my reprieve but I would also argue that whilst not denying a certain rub of the green, several of the factors in my argument for going with the value on a Shaymen win were born out by the result. There was also an additional crucial factor which I didn't highlight in last week's blog but which I always keep on board when making decisions about teams.

Always be wary of backing teams who seek to blame anyone but themselves for defeat.

I note it especially in managers. The negativity that spreads around a team whose manager practices it has always been noticeable to me and I saw it as a deciding factor in why the better team ended up losing this one. Weak referees may have been influenced by haranguing in the past but I consider that in the current climate, teams that do it are not enhancing their chances. Referees are simply less inclined to give those teams the benefit of any doubt. And so it is finally proven that referees are indeed members of the human race!

Apply the obverse of this 'blame' theory to Gary Waddock who takes his Aldershot side to the historic fixture at St James' Park Live on Setanta Tuesday night. A single point will ensure the Shots' return to the Football League after how many years in what is affectionately known as 'the non-league wilderness'? (In case you hadn't twigged, that's this week's Quiz question. In what year did Aldershot part company with their football league place?).

Waddock has kept a positivity in every aspect of his campaign this year and the proof of that lies in the staggering stat of just four drawn games from forty two. Less than 10%. You cannot prove your positivity any more decisively than that and compare it with Tisdale's Exeter side who've lost no more games than Aldershot this season but have fifteen draws to their name - an above average 35%, a figure that applies both home and away.

Ironic that Aldershot will celebrate a draw in this one but don't be surprised if the Shots continue to assert their superiority and go all the way to three points. A positive point though is all it will take to spark wild celebrations amongst the growing army of fans and I'll be betting on that outcome in the form of a lay on Exeter who seem short enough to take on at around [2.6].

Two other bets catch my eye on Monday night in Blue Square North and South when FA Cup heroes Havant and Waterlooville look nailed on to haul themselves into the play-off picture with a win over Tony Ricketts' struggling Weston-Super-Mare and Dean Thomas' Hinckley can knit one, pearl one in their game in hand against Tamworth to stop their fans sweating over the possibility of the drop.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1.5pt LAY on Exeter at [2.6] or less against Aldershot on Tuesday night

1pt BACK on Havant & Waterlooville to beat Weston-Super-Mare &

1pt BACK on Hinckley to beat Tamworth both on Monday night