Back the Vics to continue their Great Escape

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 27 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

Northwich Victoria looked a goner but, after a seven game unbeaten run, it's beginning to look like they can beat the drop from the Blue Square Premier. Gary Boswell tells you whether to back them against Oxford this weekend.

Laying the shorties at the top of the league who are pitched against the feisty long priced relegation battlers at the bottom was a strategy that paid dividends earlier in the week and I'm looking for more of same this weekend. There are various candidates to choose from as Aldershot play the two doomed desperados, Droylsden and Stafford, away from home on Thursday and Saturday. Fixtures coming thick and fast from hereon in.

Dave Pace's Bloods have been my nemesis all season. I like the spirit he's got going at the Butcher's Arms and I was willing them to get their first win on the road at Grays last midweek. They were doing ok until the unfortunate substitution of Steve Halford - who leads the line fiercely at the back. That brought Colin Cryan into the fray and every time I see him, I understand why Droylsden are conceding an average of just under three goals per game. It would surely have been kinder to leave him behind in Blue Square North where he does ok. It does some players no favours at all to climb the ladder and he's sadly one of those.

Sure enough, Grays trundled through to win and the Boz vowed to suspend all future piling of the pennies on the sentimental exercise of supporting the basement boys only for them to go and win 2-0 against Halifax very next game. That's the way some teams treat you gambling wise!

I've considered laying Aldershot at the Butchers on Thursday night but on balance the Shots' class should prevail and I see no sign of their mental strength wilting. Quite the reverse in fact. Aldershot are where they are largely because their mental strength is rock solid and I expect them to close the title down in ruthless fashion over the next four or five games.

The need to look elsewhere for a shorty to lay drew me to Torquay and Oxford on Saturday. Dino Maamria's Vics lobbed us a juicy four point nap by rallying in the last twenty minutes at the KitKat on Tuesday night and I think they might be good for another tickle at the weekend. Oxford are back on track so their price is short ([1.8]) but they've won just seven out of nineteen at the Kassam this season which is why they are where they are with nothing tangible to play for now. The Vics are unbeaten in seven and on the verge of a Houdini-like escape.

Bound, gagged and buried under ten feet of water they were at Christmas, but there's a plughole at the bottom of the pond which they've spotted down in Cheshire and I think they'll be good for at least a point again here.

The side they have their sights set on most are Graham Heathcote's Altrincham who have points in the bag but are vulnerable to a Northwich side that keeps winning. Colin Little is scoring freely for the Robins and Torquay come needing points but with 'dropsy' Simon Rayner back in goal. The big psychological factor is that the two points they dropped at home to Alty at the end of Feb started the wobble that effectively cost them any chance they had of the title. That might work in firing up the Gulls who do seem back on track but they are winning their games by small margins and are playing cagey so that Altrincham will also have a fair shout at a point at least and I think it's worth a small stake.

Thursday night's match, broadcast Live on Setanta, between Salisbury and Stevenage doesn't attract me betting wise although Borough fans will be anxiously tuning in to see if Peter Taylor can halt the in and out form that has put Stevenage's play-off place in doubt. Nick Holmes has made the Lilywhites a very tough nut to crack at the Raymond McEnhill and whilst I think on balance that all three results are possible, I'm rating the chances of Taylor leaving with all three points as the least likely eventuality.

This game has at least provided me with this week's quiz question and a pat on the proverbial back for anyone who can tell me who Raymond McEnhill was (other than a director of Salisbury FC - even I knew that!). Google couldn't come up with anything on the man himself so Boz is still a bit in the dark.

Recommendations:

2pt Lay of Oxford at [1.8] or less against Northwich Victoria
1pt Lay of Torquay at [2.0] or less against Altrincham