Non-League Betting: Why Luton aren't an attractive draw for the title but stalemates are

/ Gary Boswell / 24 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Luton are the side that Gary Boswell has chosen to oppose heavily this season.

Gary Boswell updates us on his portfolio position in the Blue Square Premier and tells us why he's adopting a slightly different approach to his weekend selections.

A quick review of The Boz BSP portfolio following the midweek mauling of Luton by Wrexham at the Racecourse ground. You'll remember that I advised the new 10 point Lay on Luton as a September Lay to Back and already you have the option to reverse that now. The back price on Luton is out to a season longest [5.6] as they drop to a new low 9th in the table.

All this reversal after just one defeat (with the game against York postponed) and despite Oxford also losing their unbeaten start to the season by failing to take advantage of the form dip at Field Mill.

So portfolio betting goes as the [4.1] lay price on Luton after the Barrow win was clearly too low in view of their upcoming fixtures. Cambridge away this Saturday and Stevenage at home next and if the Hatters can't defy form and win those two, you can expect the price to lengthen further so if you are like me, you'll be leaving the hedge back for a while in an attempt to maximise profits. The pressure on Mick Harford is mounting already and don't be surprised to see dressing room disruption soon as the Kenilworth Road faithful are already baying for his blood.

Normally, I'm keen to take every opportunity to hedge safely back when offered the chance at preferential odds as you'll see I did on my pre-season lays on Stevenage and Cambridge after their ropey opening day performances.

A -73.50 figure about any team would normally unnerve me but when it creates a +17 minimum on the rest of the field which of course includes Oxford then I'm relatively happy and season long portfolio betting is about consistently reviewing the judgement calls and at the moment the conclusion on that is - Luton are still very much a safe lay!

Our longshot outsider in the back column - Graham Heathcote's Altrincham - come under the focus this weekend in the match betting as most of the non-league world focuses on early qualifying rounds of the FA Cup and the Blue Square Premier are left to get on alone with their league campaigns. Such weekends are often very influential in decisive season-long moves and I'm wondering whether the Robins can get their good start to the season back on track with a win at Broadhall Way. Stevenage are [1.53] to win which looks an imminently layable price, especially as they failed at similar odds against Grays midweek.

Altrincham's bubble burst after the early season leap into the top six and it's a fact that they haven't really shown any form against the better sides in reaching their current mid-table slot. Not on a losing streak either though with only three defeats in eleven and it's the draws against Crawley and Cambridge that interest me. Part of a noticeable pattern in BSP this season which has seen a huge upturn in draw instance. Over 10% greater occurrence of draws so far this season compared to last and a marked seven draws from eleven games on Tuesday night.

Draw betting is a peculiar phenomenon often labelled 'the bet for those that can't make up their mind' and traditionally known in bookmaker trading rooms as 'the bounty' being the result that often comes up but which no-one bothers to back!

As a pools panel predictor, I spend a lot of time each week predicting potential draw instance and although the "lay the low risk" approach is often my preferred way to bet on such predictions, I'm going break with that trend this weekend as a conscious effort at repairing my poor season long match betting score and backing the preferential odds you often get offered on the even-steven outcome.

Stevenage-Altrincham at [4.4] is my number one pick and I combine that with draw fancies on AFC Wimbledon-Histon at [4.0] and Eastbourne-Tamworth at [3.6] for a level stakes threesome to show a profit with just one success.

Tamworth are the draw kings of BSP so far this season with a 50% strike rate from twelve games and have carried that 'very difficult to break down' style of play very successfully into BSP.

THE BOZ'S BEST THREE BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:

BACK STEVENAGE-ALTRINCHAM draw at [4.4] or longer
BACK AFC WIMBLEDON-HISTON draw at [4.0] or longer
BACK EASTBOURNE-TAMWORTH draw at [3.6] or longer

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -6.51 to level stakes for the 09/10 season.