Matt talks stats / Matthew Walton / 19 August 2008 / Leave a comment

Check these stats before plumping for the obvious selection when making your bet on promotion from the Championship, League One or Two.

We're all guilty, and some of us more than others, of striking bets when we're not in full possession of all the facts. We bridge the 'knowledge gap' with a hunch, a gut-feeling or, failing all else, blind optimism. Sound familiar?

Here, in these regular discussions, the one point we strive to make is that we should all make this 'gap' as small as possible. Be aware of as many of the facts, and as much of the data, as we can before we go to work on Betfair.

In short, don't be premature in selecting and making your bets.

... and talking of all things premature, when it comes to football, being all of a week into the season, let's turn our attention to promotion!! After all, the newspapers are already printing the divisions with lines across them to denote the automatic promotion places, the play-off qualifiers and the dreaded relegation zone ... all on the strength of one or two matches!

We, likewise, have already made (or are about to make) our bets on who will go up from the various divisions. But - and here's the point - have we all done it on the basis of a knowledge of all the relevant data? Probably not. Hence, we set ourselves the task of finding out a little bit more about what it takes to get promoted from the various divisions of the Football League.

And the main area we want to discuss isn't transfers, managerial changes or boardroom take-overs but the pure and simple study of finishing positions. Namely, which sides have the best chance of being promoted each season on account of where they ended up in the last campaign.

Popular wisdom would say that relegated sides, down a division the next year, are the best sides to be on. After all, they are usually the market leaders and the subject of most betting interest. Not so, we would argue.

The sample data is taken from the last 15 years. A representative study for these purposes but you may wish to explore further.

We looked at a side's finishing position for the previous season i.e. the year before they were promoted. Here's what we found :-

Clubs Promoted From The Championship 1993/94 to 2007/08 (44 teams)
Finished top half of Championship: 21.
Finished bottom half: 8.
Promoted from Division 1: 2.
Relegated from Premier League: 13.

Clubs Promoted From Division 1 1993/94 to 2007/08 (44 teams)
Finished top half of Division 1: 23.
Finished bottom half: 9.
Promoted from Division 2: 5.
Relegated from the Championship: 7.

Clubs Promoted From Division 2 1993/94 to 2007/08 (56 teams)
Finished top half of Division 2: 26.
Finished bottom half: 10.
Promoted from Conference: 4.
Relegated from Division 1: 16.

So what do we learn from this data and how should it effect the bets we make on Betfair?

Well, did you know that teams relegated from the Premier League are less likely to be promoted to the top flight the following season than sides who finished the previous campaign in the top half of the Championship? It's 21/44 (47%) for the sides from the Championship and only 13/44 (29%) for the relegated Premier League sides. That's some difference.

So would you rather be on Wolves or Derby this coming season?

Want to back a side to be promoted from Division 1 this season? You must first look to the top half finishers in this section for last year. With 23/44 (52%) of the promoted sides from this division being top half finishers the season before you must go for a Carlisle or an Oldham ahead of Scunthorpe or even Leicester City.

Into the basement and once again we see top half finishers 26/56 (46%) well ahead of all others, especially the relegated sides from Division 1, 16/56 (28%). Again, would your money be on Rochdale or Port Vale to go up this season?

Funny isn't it? How perceived wisdom suggests one thing, whereas the statistics say another. And this is the key to our argument. When such patterns occur, and the market is out of line with the facts, it's the perfect opportunity for YOU to step in a take full advantage.

How many times do people pile on sides to 'bounce back' from a relegation only to find them doing even worse than the season before? When they go down sides are low on confidence, often short of finance and forced to sell their best players.

Conversely, sides who miss out on promotion are naturally disappointed but, then again, they may retain some momentum for the new season, they could have greater pulling power in the transfer market and have a better knowledge of what it takes to succeed in that section.

As you can see, this discussion is a perfect illustration of our constant concern - to make the data do the work when it comes to bet selection. Not a reliance on gut feelings and wild expectations.

When the market goes one way and the statistics go another, we know which path we would prefer to follow. Stick with the stats and make your profit!

Tags: Promotion Betting