Matt talks stats / Matthew Walton / 15 September 2008 / 1 Comments

The adage about backing sides at odds-on, away from home, being the 'fast way to the poor house' should be ringing in your ears! says Matthew Walton.

When studying the weekend football lists on Betfair, looking for a 'home banker' to replenish your ailing account or maybe to underwrite some more speculative investments on the coupon, it's most likely to be the Premier League where you start your search.

Why? Well, of course for many fans, it's where their natural allegiances lie, following one team or another in the top flight. For others, it's where the most data is to be found upon which to base their selections - we now have a sea of information on individual and team play, seasonal trends, win-loss sequences, previous head-to-head form, in fact all manner of facts and figures to aid the process.

Furthermore, it's the division with the widest disparity of wealth, ability and performance - surely. Think back to last season, Premier League and Champions League winners, Manchester United, in the same section as hapless Derby County - one win in the entire campaign!

So, for example, the likes of Liverpool v Stoke City this weekend must be the perfect 'good thing' with which to buy a bit of money. Take the [1.24] and make a tidy 24% profit in a mere 90-odd minutes - it's nigh on a certainty.

Well, kind of.

You see, there is the natural attraction of the Premier League for punters. We know the sides and the players inside out, we can watch the games on TV, we arguably find better and more reliable form at the higher level, we might support one of the teams as well and so the list goes. Like moths to a flame we're drawn to these high profile games.

However, the point of this discussion is that during the last five years, the percentage of home wins by Premier League sides, over the whole season, is a none too impressive 46.8%.

From a total of 380 home matches played each season, only once (in 2005-06) have we seen more than 50% of the matches won by the home side and generally it's around the 45% mark. In short, on average, a draw or home loss is a more likely outcome than a home win.

We're looking for a 'home banker' though. We want a higher percentage of teams winning at home. But even if we go North of the border there's no better to be found as the SPL home win average for the last five seasons is only 45.4% even allowing for Celtic and Rangers.

Ok then, we'll go to Europe. We're all acquainted with Real Madrid and Barcelona in Spain, Lyon in France, Bayern Munich in Germany and the Milans of Italy - these sides may be foreign but we're familiar with them, we know our Bundesliga from our Primera Liga. Surely we can find some solid, nailed-on betting material in these divisions.

Last five seasons, percentage of home wins across all league matches in the top flight - Bundesliga 46.8%, Primera Liga 46.3%, Ligue A 46.2% and Serie A 45.0%.

Strange how they're all strikingly similar, England and Germany are identical but you can pretty much throw a blanket over the lot as only 1.8% covers the top flight in six different countries. And that's over a five year period, it's not as if it's a seasonal one-off.

Now at this point you might say - 'Ah, but surely this just shows that in these premier divisions, the top teams simply win a lot of away matches (as well as home matches) and so cause many of the other lesser sides to have a poor home win percentage - thus driving down the overall home win percentage'.

Good point. And take the example of Arsenal [1.67] going to Bolton this weekend. A win for Arsene Wenger's side, and others like them, will inevitably cause these home win figures to drop. So maybe your quest for a decent 'home banker' should just be about finding a winner, whether at home or away, by simply backing the top sides blindly.

But does that necessarily ring true? With Arsenal odds-on to win at the Reebok having only won one of their last five visits to the North West. The adage about backing sides at odds-on, away from home, being the 'fast way to the poor house' should be ringing in your ears! Banker bets they ain't.

And yes, you could also say - 'Betting is all about value. The probability of success, compared to the odds available. The win percentage means little without reference to the odds on offer'. Fair point again but surely the characteristic of the 'home banker' is that value is all too often conveniently forgotten. It's just 'the win' which punters want. Lump on and collect, simple as that.

No. The answer is there, right in front of you. Just set your sights a little lower. What about the Championship plus Divisions 1 and 2, aren't they worth exploring?

Last five seasons, percentage of home wins across all league matches - in the Championship it's 50.6%, Division 1 an even better 51.4% and in Division 2 a respectable 49.5%. All significantly better than the other, more widely publicised, more familiar, more supposedly reliable top divisions which attract so much of our time, effort and money.

For sure, you might feel less inclined towards Cheltenham than Chelsea, Aldershot to Arsenal but a knowledge of these sides, as we've seen from the above figures, can pay dividends. And, God forbid, there's enough data around these days to amply cover all four divisions.

So when you're perusing the coupon for this week's so-called 'good things' to steal a few quid off your fellow Betfair rivals it might be better to set your sights lower, as opposed to higher.

The likes of Birmingham City [1.46] against Blackpool, Millwall [1.52] against Cheltenham Town and Bradford City [1.67] to beat Bournemouth are statistically more likely to get your weekend punting off to a good start.

As with all betting, the more you put in, the more you can get out. The glittering delights of the Premier League may initially catch your eye but there are good bets, and often better bets, in the lower divisions.

Happy hunting on Betfair!