Matt talks stats / Matthew Walton / 14 April 2008 / 3 Comments

"Magical" Matt Walton uncovers the statistics which all backers should know. Are you missing out on profits by thinking that the scoring of goals is purely random?

The number of betting markets available to the football backer has steadily grown over the years. Corners, bookings, sendings-off, clean sheets, Asian handicaps have all been added at various times to the firm favourites such as correct scores, HT/FTs, first goalscorer bets and outright match winners.

This week we'll focus on one facet of the game upon which most other markets, whether old or new, so heavily rely - namely goals. After all, without them we wouldn't have much of a game to talk about!

Because the scoring of goals effects so many markets it's vitally important, as backers, that we are knowledgeable on this subject. And, here, we're going to discuss one aspect of goals. Not who scores them, nor how many they score but, crucially, when these goals are scored.

Why? Simple. The vast majority of markets are decided by goals and especially for in-running Betfair customers, to be betting without some understanding of the topic is potentially damaging (not to your health ... but your wealth!).

Consequently we have produced a table which shows the spread of goals scored by Premier League sides so far this season. The table covers all matches, domestically and in Europe, and takes in all the action up to April 13th.

This season there have been 1,177 goals scored by Premier League sides and the spread of the times when these goals were scored makes for a fascinating read :-

You can clearly see the value of these statistics when you apply them, albeit in a very simple fashion, to some of the markets on Betfair.

For example, how many times have you been watching a live match and the score is, say, 1-1 midway through the second half?

All you will see happen is the odds for the draw steadily decline. Whilst at half-time it may have been [3.25], as the game moves past the hour mark the price for the draw decreases towards [2.75] and it will only continue to go one way.

However, as we can now see, 501 of 1,177 goals this season have been scored in the last 30 minutes of matches. That's 42% of the goals being scored in 33% of the time. And a time when the market is telling you that nothing else is going to happen!

Your match, that is seemingly on the way to a stalemate, can still have a great deal of life left in it. At the 60 minute point in this game you'd be better laying the draw than backing it - either you create yourself a good little trading position or you've bagged yourself a nice winner.

Similarly, total goals markets are fundamentally linked to these statistics. We see 704 of the 1,177 goals coming in the second half (60%). Again don't draw premature conclusions on the number of goals in a game. The first half, quite clearly, isn't a reliable barometer for what will happen after the break - just 473 goals before half-time (40%) doesn't tell the full story.

Also, you can apply this analysis onto other markets. Time of the first goal. Some teams are more likely to score than others, sometimes both sides are quick starters. Makes the time of the first goal a good betting market to consider.

Looking ahead to this weekend's fixtures, West Ham v Derby doesn't look a match to be full of early goals. The Hammers have scored nine goals in the first 30 minutes all season and Derby have managed just six goals in the same period.

Compare that to Arsenal v Reading where the Gunners have bagged 28 goals in the first 30 minutes this season, Reading have scored just seven goals before the half hour. No prizes for guessing when the first goal might be scored and by whom.

Going to Ewood Park for Blackbun v Manchester United? Don't leave early as both Blackburn and Manchester United have their highest totals in the final stages of their games. Likewise in the Fulham v Liverpool match at Craven Cottage where again both sides do a lot of their scoring late on. Same goes for Newcastle v Sunderland on Sunday.

Of course, there are two sides to every story. It's all very well talking about the scoring of goals but what about conceding them? Fair point but as the majority of these figures are taken up by Premier League matches, a goal for one side is a goal against another. The table, in this respect, is self-contained.

Furthermore, we're only discussing markets which benefit from this type of study. If we were talking about sides not conceding goals then the example of the draw given above might actually be flipped on its head - we'd be talking more about backing the draw in certain cases and not laying it.

Overall, this study has produced some very interesting data. The number of late goals scored by some teams in particular and all sides in general, the sides who regularly score at certain times of a game (or don't more to the point).

Knowing these figures can significantly help your betting and especially your profits on the in-running markets.

Tags: Football Betting