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Matt talks stats

Football betting really is a game of two halves

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Matthew Walton crunches the numbers to find out why Betfair's popular half time/full time market offers plenty of value if you know where to look

These days, when it comes to football, we can place bets on pretty much any market we care to imagine. However, as with all investments, we should have at least a rudimentary knowledge of the facts before we start casting our bread upon the waters. After all, more knowledge allows for better decisions and better decisions make for better bets ... and greater returns!

Last time out we discussed the importance of team line-ups with regards to outright betting. Here we take a look at another favourite of football backers, the half-time/full-time (HT/FT) markets.

This is another area which punters tend to approach on a rather simplistic level. Often the view when faced with the chance to back a short-priced team to win in 90 minutes is to opt for the HT/FT result. Why take (1.40) for the full-time score when it's (2.0) for the HT/FT result?

Similarly, when opposing poor sides, lay them on the HT/FT markets. Struggling in the league, poor defence, playing a free-scoring side, surely they'll get beaten quite easily. Like buying money isn't it?

Employing this approach, and looking ahead to this weekend's fixtures, you could be considering the HT/FT on, say, Manchester United at Fulham and Arsenal at home to Aston Villa. Each of the top two sides are short prices to win and the HT/FT's look an easy way of boosting your returns.

However, problems soon start to appear when you delve a little deeper into the statistics concerning Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger's men.

To explain. In order to collect on the HT/FT the first thing your side has to be doing is to be ahead after 45 minutes. Unless they're leading at the break your bet is dead in the water.

The table below shows the performance of all the Premier League sides so far this season. As you can see, Manchester United and Arsenal are the two most successful sides this season when we consider their performances in the first half.

The fact which should be jumping out at you is that even despite their place near the top of this '45 minute' table (as well as the Premier League table itself) Manchester United only lead at the break in 51% of their matches (14 of 27). They are currently (1.95) on the HT/FT for the Fulham match when they should be barely that mark just to be leading at half-time ... and then you've the whole of the second half to consider!

And, for the record, this season the Manchester United HT/FT result has come in just 11 of 27 times (40%) and Arsenal is 12 of 27 (44%). So United at less than (2.0) and even Arsenal at their current mark around (2.50) for the Villa match hardly screams VALUE at you.

Furthermore, you have to consider the figures for the opposition. The sides they are facing, especially in the case of Fulham, may well be inferior but what does the table show us.

Notably, in the case of Roy Hodgson's side, we see that Fulham are the 6th best side in the Premier League when it comes to first half performances. It's after the break they lose the plot. Likewise, Aston Villa are in 7th place and, turning the table on is head, the side from Villa Park have only trailed at half-time in 10 of their 27 matches to date, that's just 37%. By that rationale, Arsenal should be a generous odds against price just to led at the break, let alone at half-time and full-time.

Yes, with all these figures we need to investigate a little deeper - i.e. it would be good to see how Arsenal's HT/FT figures break down at the Emirates as opposed to on the road, also is Fulham's record better against teams in the bottom half of the table than the top half?

By the same token, Derby County may have only led at the break in one match this season but they have only trailed in 13 of 27. That's 48%. They are still level, or ahead, at half-time in 52% of their matches which should make the HT/FT lay price against them on the better side of (2.0) - and is it? Not always.

Betting commentators are always quick to remind us of the concept of value. When you strike a bet it has to stack up, pretty much, in terms of risk and reward.

Here you have a set of figures which show you that very often backers are being asked to take under the odds on HT/FT bets.

Perhaps a better way to look at the whole HT/FT situation would be for the draw at HT to be the basis of your bet. Notice how many sides have the draw at half-time as their most common position after 45 minutes, the likes of Liverpool, Spurs, Manchester City, West Ham, Newcastle and Wigan. The market for draw HT-home/draw/away FT offers bigger prices and possibly more reward for the shrewd backer.

Ultimately whichever way you choose to play, backing the HT/FT result is a more complicated bet than many think and the straight win HT-win FT bet is one of the worst value bets around (unless you do your homework!).