Matt talks stats / Matthew Walton / 07 April 2008 / 1 Comments " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet

"Magical" Matthew Walton explains how a straightforward look at past statistics allow us to find massive value on Betfair's correct score markets. Don't believe him? Read this...

You can find trends in anything if you look hard enough. Even the most random of data has its own characteristic - if nothing else, the pattern is that it has no pattern!

The same applies to football and even though some argue that 'team form' - as we collectively brand it - is fundamentally flawed (by the fact that match-to-match, players and managers change, circumstances differ etc) there is still a belief that patterns can be identified. And, in these articles, it's such patterns we aim to find so as to improve our betting success.

Hence, each week, we examine a new sample of facts and figures with a purpose of spotting value and locating decent profits.

This week we turn our attention to correct scores. A favourite with many backers, and why not? It's a way of turning a [1.9] shot into a [7.0] winner if you have the right information available and make the right decision.

Looking forward to this weekend's fixtures, we have taken four at random, one from each division, and studied their respective 'correct score' form.

The table below includes the main data we're interested in. That's the score between the two chosen sides from each of the last 10 meetings at the respective ground, plus the correct score record of the teams, either home or away, for this current season.

Taking the four matches in turn :-

Liverpool v Blackburn
Last 10 meetings have the 0-0 happening three times (30%) and the 1-1 twice (20%). The 1-1 home draw, three times from 17 games, is Liverpool's most frequent home scoreline (18%). As for Blackburn, they have two 0-0 draws from 16 away matches (12%) and two 1-1 draws (12%).

Percentage call is a 0-0 draw or 1-1 draw. Cross-referencing the above data would make either option around the [6.0] (6.0) to [7.0] (7.0) mark. Betfair odds are already much bigger for both!

Charlton v Southampton
In their last 10 meetings the most common score is 1-1, which happened three times (30%). This season Charlton have a 1-1 draw as their most common home result, five times in 21 matches (24%). Southampton also have five 1-1 draws in 21 away matches (24%).

Percentage call a 1-1 draw. Stats suggest this scoreline should be little more than [4.0] (4.0) ... and you'll find much bigger odds about this score - a big value bet.

Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers
There have been four 1-0 home wins in the last 10 meetings (40%) and the 0-1 has occurred twice (20%). Bournemouth have one 1-0 win at home from 21 games (5%) and two 0-1 losses (10%). Bristol Rovers have won four of 21 games 1-0 (21%) and lost four 0-1 (21%).

Percentage call 1-0 to Bournemouth or 0-1 to Bristol Rovers. Anything above [6.0] (6.0) for the 1-0 or 0-1 scoreline would be value on these stats.

Chester City v Lincoln City
Even spread of results from last ten fixtures. No 0-0 draws. This season Chester City lost five of 20 matches at home 0-1 (25%) and four 0-2 (20%). Lincoln City have a single 1-0 and 2-0 win in their 21 game record (5%x2 = 10%). A 0-1 loss is their most frequent away score.

Percentage call a win for Lincoln City 1-0 or 2-0. The data says a price of [7.0] (7.0) to [8.0] (8.0) for Lincoln to win by either one or two goals, Betfair will say more come Saturday.

So we have our four matches for the weekend. Using three sources of information - the 10 match head-to-head records plus the seasonal home and away records - we can calculate a rough price which should available on Betfair. That is, if layers study the form!

Take the Charlton/Southampton game as an example. We have three separate pieces of data which all highlight the 1-1 draw as having roughly a 25%-30% chance of happening. That should make for a price of [4.0] (4.0) but you'll find much bigger when you come to place your bets for Saturday.

The other three matches involve a little more effort in triangulating the information into a precise prediction, hence we've hedged our bets with a dual forecast for each match. However, at the likely odds well in excess of [8.0] (8.0), even [10.0] (10.0), you can afford an interest in both.

Needless to say, it brings us back to the initial comment. Despite the passing of time, the changes in personnel and the difference of circumstances it is still possible to locate patterns of performance within this data. Take these four matches as examples and follow the markets on Betfair through to the weekend and then see how they fare over Saturday and Sunday.

You may very well be surprised about how much value there really is to be had once you've studied the form and found these correct score trends.

Tags: correct score market, football betting, football stats