Matt talks stats / Matthew Walton / 28 April 2008 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

"Magical" Matt Walton examines the facts and figures about top flight referees and finds out whether it's the players or the referees who determine the bookings make-up

We're all familiar with the old saying about 'some people being able to start an argument in an empty room'.

Certain individuals immediately spring to mind. Wherever they go they seem to find trouble ... or is that trouble just happens to find them!

But we're not talking here about players, we're going to discuss referees. After all, they are the ones who determine the make-up of the Bookings Odds and Bookings Index markets, aren't they?

Well, maybe not. I'm sure if you asked a referee he would say the decisions are made for him by the actions of the players. He is merely the recorder of events. An impartial arbiter who delivers justice according to the book. If it's a dirty game, he might well say, there will be a lot of cards. If it's a clean game, the bookings make-up will be low.

But do you really buy that argument?

If you take the view that referees are awarded games on a random basis, the table below would suggest there are some strange coincidences at work in the Premier League ... no matter how many games certain referees get, they always seem to be the rough ones and others, by a similar quirk of fate, always seem to get those matches played out in 'testimonial' good humour!

Mark Halsey, for example, dishes out barely two yellow cards a game compared to Lee Mason who encounters almost twice the number of indiscretions per match.

Howard Webb has brandished just two red cards in the 39 matches he has officiated this season, whilst Rob Styles can't seem to control himself when it comes to ordering early baths (15 reds in just 35 matches).

Consider these statistics and maybe you'll change your opinion that referees apply the laws consistently on a match to match basis.

And, of course, when we're looking at the Bookings Odds and Bookings Index markets on Betfair these are the sort of figures which, as backers, we need to know.

But as we also must realise, it takes two to start a fight. The referee's tally will depend upon the nature of the two sides he has to control on the field of play. Hence we need to be familiar with the characteristics of the teams themselves. Who are the lovers and who are the fighters?

The table below covers the action in this season's Premier League (as of April 27th) and sorts out the habitual offenders from the lovable rogues.

Who'd have thought it? Bolton without a single sending off all season! Mind you, they receive more than their fair share of yellow cards. Everton come top of the class in terms of good behaviour (just beating their city neighbours Liverpool) but Middlesbrough are most frequently found in detention.

Interesting statistics in their own right, more so when we use them for betting purposes and, we hope, profitable betting purposes.

Coming this close to the end of the season we have to tread carefully - after all, certain matches between two mid-table sides are hardly likely to be played out with the intensity of an Old Firm derby! Still, to illustrate the general point of the discussion, we can look ahead to this weekend's fixtures and test our findings.

As such we would determine Middlesbrough/Portsmouth as the most inflammatory match of the programme. Mind you, with both sides having little to play for, and Pompey preparing for the FA Cup Final, it doesn't seem pegged for a highly charged encounter.

A better option might lie with a low make-up for the Liverpool/Man City game at Anfield. Both could find their season effectively over come Sunday and throw in the likes of a Mark Halsey as the referee and there could very well be barely a crossed word between the pair.

However, give Rob Styles the Fulham/Birmingham match and that could get interesting!!

Overall, as backers, it's important to be familiar with these figures. As with many of the statistics we discuss in these articles, they are readily available but it just takes a little effort to find them and a little discipline to follow them. If you do that you will put your betting on a more professional and profitable level - especially on markets which other Betfair users are ill-informed about and use rarely.

We'll come back to this issue again once the matches take on true significance right across the board but in the meantime take a look at this weekend's fixtures, check on the referee appointed for the match and see whether it's the case that some referees just have a habit of walking into trouble every time they enter a football ground!

Tags: bokings betting, Howard webb, Premiership referees, Rob Styles