U21 European Championship Betting: Tournament Blog - Day 11

Internationals / Mike Norman / 25 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

He may have been distracted by some rather ravishing athletes known to play another sport, but our man Mike Norman has regained his self-control to give us the lowdown on the U21 European Championship semi-finalists.

I haven't got much to report this morning, simply because I spent the whole of yesterday watching the tennis at Wimbledon... well, several re-runs of the Maria Sharapova/Gisela Dulko match to be precise.

The talent on show was incredible (the tennis wasn't bad either), and I can't help but rue the fact that BBC iPlayer wasn't around during the days of Gabriella Sabatini and Jennifer Capriati. My red thingamajig would have taken some hammering back then I tell ye... the one on the remote that is, the red button!

But it's football I've been assigned to talk about, so with all four camps keeping their cards firmly close to their chests (apart from the occasional 'leaking' of unreserved confidence), I've decided to startle (ok, bore) you all with some facts and figures ahead of tomorrow's U21 European Championship semi-final matches.

Goals scored: Sweden 9, England 5, Italy 4, Germany 3

Goals conceded: Germany 1, England 2, Italy 2, Sweden 4

All shots: Italy 44, Sweden 43, England 24, Germany 24

Shots on target: Italy 22, Sweden 16, England 13, Germany 11

Corners: Italy 19, England 17, Germany 12, Sweden 9

Whether Italy and Sweden were in an easier group than England and Germany is debatable, but the stats clearly show that the Group A participants have been far more attack-minded. Between them, Italy and Sweden had 81% more shots than their Group B counterparts, 58% more shots on target, and scored approximately 62% more goals.

However, although Italy come out on top in the majority of the attacking stats, the fact that they have so far only scored four goals perhaps indicates that they lack a cutting edge in front of goal.

Of the Italians' 22 shots on target, just 18% of them found the back of the net. This compares poorly to the 27% conversion rate of their semi-final opponents Germany, and particularly badly compared to England (38%) and Sweden (56%).

Germany are unquestionably the least adventurous team remaining, but as we have come to expect from German football teams at any level, they are disciplined, hard-working, incredibly difficult to break down, and more often than not, able to do just enough to succeed. Their semi-final encounter with Italy promises to be a clash of forbearance versus exuberance, defence versus attack, and mentality versus physicality.

The early exchanges in the betting have resulted in Germany being available to back at [3.25], Italy at [2.46], and The Draw at [3.35]. Germany can be backed at [4.8] to win the tournament outright - Italy are available at [3.35].

In contrast, the England v Sweden semi-final is expected to be a lot more even in terms of the playing styles of the teams. Both like to get the ball down and play and attack at every opportunity, and both have the quality within their side to score a lot of goals. England are undoubtedly the fresher side, and it's because of this that I just fancy them to make the final.

England can be backed at [2.18] for victory tomorrow, Sweden at [3.85], and The Draw at [3.4]. Stuart Pearce's men remain the favourites to win the tournament at [2.78] - Sweden are the outsiders at [5.5].