The Betfair Contrarian: Why Fabio Capello will be gone by September

Internationals / The Betfair Contrarian / 02 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

Everything points to Fabio's departure according to the Contrarian

"With the benefit of hindsight, it’s clear that Capello’s decision to set a minimum target of reaching the World Cup semi-finals was a grave error."

After last weekend's ignominius departure from the World Cup, Fabio Capello's time as England manager is up, says the Betfair Contrarian.

The Contrarian doesn't necessarily agree with calls for Fabio Capello to be sacked - in fact he can't help but chuckle at the idea that a nine-time title-winning coach who has collected silverware with every club that he's managed isn't good enough for England, yet Harry Redknapp is - but there are so many dissenting voices that they can't go ignored. Here's why you should bet on Capello losing his job this summer at [2.82].

The press have targeted Capello...

To the Contrarian, elimination in either the second round or quarter-finals is pretty much the average England World Cup performance, but of course the newspapers that talked up this group of players as a "golden generation" can't admit that, so their only option is to blame the manager. "It's time you went, Capello" was a headline in The Sun, while the Daily Mirror warned that he "should quit in shame". The Daily Star completed a full house of disapproval by stating that "Capello has to take the blame".

...and they always get their man

Sir Bobby Robson, Graham Taylor, Glenn Hoddle, Sven-Goran Eriksson and Steve McClaren have all been given a helping hand clearing their desks by the media, so Capello is doomed now that they have taken a firm stance against him. Sven managed to survive three international tournaments with his managerial reputation pretty much intact (well, many in England weren't satisfied with three successive tournament quarter-finals, though the McClaren era perhaps caused a rethink), and was instead undone by the News of the World's "fake sheikh" sting. The Italian has already been shown the power held by the British press after they forced the shelving of the Capello Index.

Capello only has himself to blame

With the benefit of hindsight, it's clear that Capello's decision to set a minimum target of reaching the World Cup semi-finals was a grave error. In addition to cranking up the pressure in South Africa, it has now handed his critics something to snare him with. So while England fans should accept second round and quarter-final appearances as a decent achievement, they can't be blamed for their reaction having been told the final four was the aim, and will also question why someone should earn £6 million a year for what by their own admission is failure.

His fellow managers haven't helped

Other bosses at this World Cup have accepted blame for their sides' shortcomings, which will heighten demands for Capello to do the same. Javier Aguirre, who hardly did a terrible job with Mexico, resigned because it was "the most honest thing to do" yet the most fitting comments came from Marcello Lippi, who said: "I take all responsibility for what happened, because if a team shows up at such an important game with terror in their head, heart and legs, and if the team is unable to express its abilities, it means the coach didn't train that team as he should have done, psychologically, technically or tactically."

The period of reflection is ominous

If Capello had sufficient backing from the FA to continue then there would be no need to keep him hanging on a thread for a fortnight. The fact that they are considering his future indicates that they are in the "out" camp but want to identify a replacement first and give the impression that they haven't reacted rashly and bowed to media pressure.

He could walk away anyway

The Daily Telegraph claim that Capello is furious at the possibility that he'll be kept on as manager just because the FA don't want to have to pay him off. He is reportedly only interested in staying on if they have total confidence in his ability, and if he didn't believe that was the case, the Telegraph reckon that he would try to negotiate a severance deal and find work elsewhere.