Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 44: World Cup

Internationals / Jack Houghton / 11 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

Miroslav Klose - top score at World Cup 2006

"For my outright picks I am left with the Netherlands [10.0] and Germany [15.5], and the Betting challenge is having £20 on each."

After last week's Derby disaster, Jack Houghton dusts himself down and selects some World Cup bets. After all, football is his speciality...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

*

Were this Betting Challenge ever to be reinterpreted as an opera, Workforce's spectacular Derby win would be the bit where the hero's loved one dies of consumption: his grief a prelude to his own imminent death. Put another way: it buggered me.

Reflecting on the analysis that led to that Derby bet is painful. In retrospect, Workforce's chance was obvious: his second in the Dante was the fastest performance of any horse in the field this season, despite the bit slipping through his mouth during the race.

Rather than celebrating that performance though, I denigrated it: the equipment malfunction symptomatic of a tricky horse unsuited to the Derby test. Instead, I preferred a piece of heavy-ground French form from November. Argghhh. Remember from here on this adage: there are many a slipped bit twixt muppet and betting slip.

Need to move on though. I still have £250 left, with nine weeks to quadruple it. No problem. Especially with the World Cup starting. Soccer's my speciality.

After hours of analysis, I have come to the rather unoriginal conclusion that five teams - Brazil, Spain, England, Germany and the Netherlands - hold a virtual stranglehold of chance over winning the World Cup. Of those, Brazil seem the most likely. They have smashed up a couple of lesser African teams in their competition warm-up and, before that, looked the best around when beating England in a friendly in November. With a superstar line-up - including Kaka and Robinho - they'll be hard to beat.

A similar case can be made for Spain. If the World Cup was contested by national association representatives, armed with their player cards, top-trumping their squad man-for-man, then Spain, like Brazil, would be shoe-in finalists. But that (unfortunately, some would say) is not how the game is played and, whilst squad superstardom might look good on paper, it does tend to lead to overly skinny prices. Brazil [5.9] and Spain [5.1] are too short to recommend.

As are England. The international television dominance of the Premier League, coupled with football betting markets skewed towards the actions of UK punters, mean England likely never have, and certainly are not now, value to win the World Cup.

For my outright picks then I am left with the Netherlands [10.0] and Germany [15.5], and the Betting challenge is having £20 on each. The Dutch, unbeaten in qualifying, lack the household names of Spain and Brazil (Arjen Robben aside), but they have displayed an organisation and ability to win that will, at least, see them sail through an easy group.

As for Germany, Michael Ballack's withdrawal might actually help their chances: there were undoubtedly tensions between the ex-Chelsea midfielder and coach Jogi Low and, with those removed, the likes of Schweinsteiger and Klose can spearhead an effective German challenge.

As for the rest of the World Cup, I'm hoping to benefit from a trend I've noticed developing over the last few years. Whether it's the presence of African players in the top European leagues, the European media coverage afforded the African Cup of Nations or simply the memory of World Cup success for African teams two decades' ago, I'm not sure - but I'm certain that markets are consistently overvaluing the chance of African teams in international matches.

With this in mind, an approach I'm adopting privately is to oppose all African teams to a level stake in every match they contest. I'm quietly confident this will return a healthy profit by tournament's end. For the Betting Challenge though, I'm having £30 on Serbia, at [2.22], to beat Ghana on Sunday.

This week's bets:

£20 Back Netherlands at [10.0] to win World Cup.
£20 Back Germany at [15.5] to win World Cup.
£30 Back Serbia at [2.22] to beat Ghana.

Already recommended:

£20 Lay France at [2.2] to win Group A - 18/04/10.
£20 Back Mexico at [4.7] to win Group A- 18/04/10.
£20 Back of South Korea at [3.8] to qualify from Group B- 18/04/10.
£20 Back of Honduras at [6.0] to qualify from Group H - 18/04/10.