International Friendly Betting: England v Hungary

Internationals / Mike Norman / 10 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Can Theo Walcott get his England career back on track against Hungary on Wednesday night?

"When you add in the seven goals England conceded during this time you then have six matches resulting in 23 goals being scored, that’s an average of almost four goals per game."

After a disappointing World Cup campaign, England start their new era against Hungary on Wednesday night though nothing much has changed says Mike Norman. Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8].

Venue: Wembley Stadium
Kick-Off/TV: Wednesday 20:00, live on ITV1

It's difficult to believe that just two months ago the whole of the country was dreaming of World Cup glory for Fabio Capello and his England side. Yet here we are now, battered and bewildered, and about to embark on a new era for our national side with the same manager that failed us, and a squad of players that contains eight members of the starting line-up that were thrashed and humiliated by Germany. Nothing much has changed then!

Sometimes you've just got to bite your lip; at least Capello has named three - that's right, three - uncapped players for this meaningless and unwanted friendly international. There will be some improvement at Wembley however, that I can guarantee - apparently the pitch is in the best condition it's ever been!

It's impossible to predict what team Capello will start with on Wednesday night though I'd expect youngsters such as Kieran Gibbs, Michael Dawson, Jack Wilshere, Adam Johnson and Ashley Young to be used alongside old heads, John Terry, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard as opposed to a young side starting the game and an experienced one finishing it, or vice versa. What is certain is that the players that underperformed in South Africa will receive a chorus of boos from the sparse Wembley crowd, and that could make it an uncomfortable evening all round for all concerned.

Match Odds: England [1.34], Hungary [13.0], The Draw [5.4]

This is not a market to get too involved in as although England should emerge victorious, it wouldn't be a big surprise if they were to make hard work of getting the job done. At this time in 2008 England could only manager a 2-2 draw at home to the Czech Republic in a friendly, whilst in August last year it was the same scoreline away to Holland before scraping a single goal victory at home to Slovenia a few weeks later.

Under normal circumstances I'd be tempted to lay England at their current odds, or even nominate The Draw as the selection at [5.4], but I think Capello and his players know there'll be no hiding place should they fail to win, and that factor alone is likely to be enough to inspire a victory.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is the market that really gets my attention. During Capello's reign, England have played 14 international friendly fixtures, scoring 27 goals in the process and conceding 14 - that's almost three goals per game being scored. Interestingly though, during the early season months of August and September England have played three games per year under Capello, scoring eight in 2008 and nine in 2009. When you add in the seven goals England conceded during this time you then have six matches resulting in 23 goals being scored, that's an average of almost four goals per game.

Obviously then, Over 2.5 Goals is the selection here at [1.8] and I wouldn't put anyone off backing Over 3.5 Goals at [3.0].

Correct Score

England very rarely win to nil these days, and what better stat to go on than the 14 goals they've conceded in 14 international friendlies? Even I can work out that's an average of one goal per game conceded. So assuming that Hungary will score once, England will secure a narrow victory, and that Over 2.5 goals will be scored, then the Correct Score of 2-1 - available to back at [9.8] - simply jumps off the screen. A saver on 3-1 ([14.0]) is also recommended.

First Goalscorer

Probably the most difficult market to predict given that - at the time of writing - there's no indication as to what England's starting 11 will be. But with Wayne Rooney having arguably the worst three months of his football career, and Bobby Zamora and Carlton Cole making very little appeal, a chance is taken on Theo Walcott at around [12.0]. I have a feeling that he will start, and if so he could be employed in an attacking role, just like he was when scoring a hat-trick against Croatia last year.

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]
Also: Back 2-1 Correct Score @ [9.8]; Back Theo Walcott First Goalscorer @ [12.0]

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