Internationals / James Eastham / 02 March 2010 / 2

Stephen Warnock and Leighton Baines will have the media spotlight trained on them - but if you want to make money on the game, look behind the headlines and study some of the stats, writes James Eastham. Best bet: England v Egypt both teams to score @ [2.12].

Let's make one thing clear - the result of this match will have no bearing on England's chances of winning the World Cup.

If Fabio Capello's side suffer an unexpected defeat at the hands of African champions Egypt at Wembley on Wednesday night, England's national daily newspapers will call into question the team's credentials, but it is important to remember there has never been a correlation between a side's results and performances in the run-up to a World Cup finals and how they fare once the tournament starts. Should England draw or lose, the smart move would be to take advantage of any overreaction on the exchange markets if England's price (they're [6.8] third favourites behind Spain ([5.5]) and Brazil ([6.4]) moves out.

The difficulty is we don't know what sort of England performance to expect. Fabio Capello will make several substitutions during the match, which will disrupt the side's rhythm, and the motivation of several England players who are competing to win the Premier League and Champions League must be questioned. That's why I'm reluctant to consider a home win a foregone conclusion.

Motivated visitors

Egypt's players will be more motivated, for three reasons: they have the opportunity to create lifelong memories for themselves by winning at the world's most famous football stadium; they'll want to show they're Africa's top side despite missing out on a place at the World Cup finals; and, individually, the players will want to catch the eye of European scouts. Coach Hassan Shehata has named 21 of Egypt's 23 Africa Cup of Nations winners in his squad and is expected to put out a strong side.

There are few clues to how Egypt may fare on European soil. They've ventured onto this continent only three times in the past decade, which will be too small a sample for most punters to take seriously, but their results - three straight defeats, with no goals scored and nine conceded - are worth a second glance. They lost 5-0 to then-European champions France in April 2003, lost 2-0 in Portugal in August 2005 and lost 2-0 in Spain in June 2006 just before the last World Cup finals kicked-off.

England have an excellent record in home March internationals stretching back over the last 15 years since a goalless draw against an excellent Uruguay side including Paolo Montero, Gus Poyet, Daniel Fonseca and Enzo Francescoli in 1995. Since then England have won eight times at this time of year, losing just once, to two Vincenzo Montella goals when Italy visited Elland Road in 2002 (2-1). Matches tend to be high-scoring, too - six of the last seven March fixtures have had over 2.5 goals

Goals expected

Those high-scoring figures are a contributory factor to my best bet. England have won four and drawn one of five home friendlies since Capello took over, but goals offer a better alternative to backing England at [1.4]. The stats lay bear the contrast between England's attacking and defensive performances since Capello took over: the side have scored in all 10 home games but conceded in seven as well. That's why both teams to score is my stand-out bet at [2.1]].

I'd also back England to lead at half-time ([1.93]), because they've done so in eight of those 10 home games. Indeed, England have conceded only once in total in those 10 home matches - so back England to keep a half-time clean sheet or to lead 1-0 at half-time at [3], as a 1-0 HT scoreline has occurred in six out of 10 matches.

I wouldn't get involved in the goalscorer markets until the starting line-ups are announced, but it's worth noting that Wayne Rooney (7), Frank Lampard (5), Jermain Defoe (4) and Peter Crouch (4) have the best home scoring records under Capello. England have scored in both halves in nine out of 10 home games since the Italian took over, which makes the price of [1.91] on England finding the net either side of half-time look too big.

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1. Mark Turner / USA | 02 March 2010

   I always call it right, and many of my friends in the UK might not like me saying that, BUT, I think the final score will be 3-1 to Egypt. I have watched them play and I really think they will shock England.

2. Fred | 03 March 2010

   I dont think the margin of victory will be a comfortable one. the Egyptians have just come off the back of a victorous african cup of nations. they are not in the world cup this summer, but will want to prove something, that they are a force to reckon with in the footballing world. i see as hock narrow away victory. Egypt to win

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