International Friendlies Betting: Netherlands v England

Internationals / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 11 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Arjen Robben and Dirk Kuyt have been two of the most important players for the Netherlands in recent times, who have won seven from seven in World Cup qualifying so far.

"Fabio Capello is one of the most successful managers in the history of the game and it’s unlikely he’s achieved that by making knee-jerk reaction decisions. Sir Alex Ferguson has showed faith in Michael Owen by snapping him up on a free and he’s scored a few goals in meaningless money-spinning Far-East friendlies but that’s a far cry from proving he’s ready to return to international football and the former Real Madrid boss knows this only too well."

It may not be the best time to hold an international friendly but these are two of the very few teams to boast an 100% record in World Cup qualifying so far. Play they will, so let's try and make some money out of this, says Jamie Pacheco.

There's a decent chance that Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder and Rafael Van der Vaart will all start on Wednesday night; there's also a decent chance that none of these three will still be Real Madrid players come the end of the transfer window. Real Madrid boss Manuel Pellegrini is under pressure to offload players to reduce the size and cost of the squad.

The Dutch trio, all big-earners and occupying similar positions to new recruits Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaka and Xabi Alonso are obvious candidates to go. But if their fate has been sealed, an international friendly against a glamorous side on the eve of the start of the major European leagues is as good a place as any to remind the world of their talents as scouts and managers follow the action closely. If they're leaving football's equivalent of Wysteria Lane, they might as well leave it for somewhere good.

Klaas Jan Huntelaar, who has already left Real in the off-season for AC Milan and Premier League-based stars Ryan Babel, Dirk Kuyt, Robin Van Persie and Nigel De Jong are all also in contention to start but Mark Van Bommel misses out with an injury sustained in Bayern Munich's draw on Saturday. The Netherlands can boast an 100% record in World Cup qualifying so far with seven straight wins though the cynics may argue they haven't had too much to beat.

Most of this team is the same as the one that was favourite to win Euro 2008 after the group stages before "doing a Netherlands" and losing the plot when it most mattered, in this case against Russia in the semis. As ever, it's not the talent of the team that is questionable but rather their ability to handle pressure, though thankfully for them, they won't be under much of it on Wednesday night.

Fabio Capello is one of the most successful managers in the history of the game and it's unlikely he's achieved that by making knee-jerk decisions. Sir Alex Ferguson has showed faith in Michael Owen by snapping him up on a free and he's scored a few goals in meaningless money-spinning Far-East friendlies but that's a far cry from proving he's ready to return to international football and the former Real Madrid boss knows this only too well. When he's got a few Premier League starts and indeed goals under his belt, then Owen will be in contention for a recall.

David James and Steven Gerrard would have presumably started if fit, but injury has ruled them out. Robert Green is in pole position to deputise for James with Ashley Young or Theo Walcott most likely to fill in for Gerrard but the usual names should play in the other positions with the usual endless substitutes replacing them at some stage.

As is always the case with friendlies, stakes should be kept low if you are going to get involved on the betting front. It's impossible to second guess what is on the respective managers' (or players') minds and trying to do so can prove dangerous. With that in mind, the prices on the match odds - Netherlands 2.5, England 3.25, the draw 3.35 - look spot on and are therefore worth swerving.

The same cannot be said of the over/under 2.5 goals market where "overs" trades at [2.38]. England have scored in each of their last 12 matches bar a 2-0 reverse in Spain, and of those 12 matches, 10 have ended with over 2.5 goals. You'd fancy them therefore to score on Wednesday at least once and with the attacking talent at the Netherlands' disposal you'd expect the hosts to do the same. They're seven from the last 12 on the "overs" front so the fact this is a friendly alone doesn't justify such a big price on over 2.5 goals. This is a good value bet, though a saver on the 1-1 at [7.2] is advisable.

I certainly wouldn't get involved in the first goalscorer market in a match of this nature. Backing a Wayne Rooney or Robin Van Persie at around [7.0] is hardly good value when they're both likely to be hauled off at half-time, but we can use this knowledge that star players on either side are unlikely to get more than a half to our advantage. The two just mentioned plus Huntelaar will all be trading at around the 4.0 mark on the "to score" market and if you can lay them at that sort of price then lay them you should. We suggested there would be goals in this match but those could come from anywhere on the pitch, not necessarily from the short-priced runners on this market.