Internationals / Matthew Walton / 18 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton crunches the numbers to tell us about England friendles dating back to 1994, which managers had the best record during this period and more importantly where our money should be for Wednesday night's clash.

The thought of an England friendly fills most people with a distinct sense of dread. And that's not just backers, that's a feeling commonly shared by the general viewing public!

Over the years we've become accustomed to expecting little from these matches ... and then receiving even less. However, faced the prospect of another 90 minutes of boredom in Berlin we owe it to ourselves to at least generate some profit from the match. Justify our commitment to watch what might very well be another forgettable England outing.

After all, a friendly against Germany, is there really such a thing?

Trying to make a profit, of course, requires a familiarity with the statistics so, as ever, we start with a trawl through the record books, this time taken from the hallowed vaults of the FA.

This study took in the last six England managers, dating back 15 years to 1994, and incorporated the results of the 81 friendlies played during this time.

Terry Venables (P19 W9 D9 L1) started the period with a most respectable record and his successor, Glenn Hoddle, maintained that form, by and large (P13 W8 D3 L2).

Kevin Keegan's tenure, ably assisted by Howard Wilkinson and Peter Taylor, saw this decent run falter (P9 W3 D4 L2) but that only teed things up for the next incumbent of the England hot-seat, Sven Goran Eriksson.

The Swede was no great fan of these contrived contests and his record (P30 W15 D8 L7) duly reflected this fact. Most people's perception of friendlies now seems to be based upon their viewing of these games under Sven - strange selections, dubious formations, multiple substitutes and the ability to lose to the likes of Australia!

Both Steve McLaren (P5 W1 D2 L2) and so far Fabio Capello (P5 W3 D1 L1) provide little meaningful figures upon which to work but McLaren's record at full international level probably tells us all we need to know about his reign. Now under Capello it might well be different ...

Overall, the bare facts read as follows - England P81 W39 D27 L15 For 129 Against 67.

This gives us a rough idea as to what we should expect when England play but in order to put this to profitable use on Betfair we need to delve a little further.

First of all we split the data into home and away matches. At Wembley, or other domestic stadia, England have P53 W28 D16 L9. On the road it's P28 W11 D11 L6.

That makes for W-D-L figures of 53%-30%-17% at home, 39%-39%-22% away. What does it tell us? In short, England don't lose too often but, then again, they don't win that many either. Win ratios of 53% at home and 39% away would be decidedly mid-table if they were transposed onto the Premier League.

Secondly, the average goals per game. This figure drops from a reasonable mark of 2.60 at home, down to just 2.07 away. Goals, it would seem, are at a premium when England travel abroad.

Thirdly, take a look at the six friendly matches which England have lost away from home during the last 15 years. They have come at the hands of Brazil (0-1, 1997), Italy (0-1, 2000), Sweden & Spain (both 0-1, 2004), Denmark (1-4, 2005) and France (0-1, 2008).

Two things stand out here (i) all the sides, give or take, come from the general 'A List' of international teams (ii) the bizarre result aside against the Danes, the other five matches have been settled by the odd goal.

Fourthly, who have England beaten away from home during this spell? Of note you could list only France 1-0 (1997) and Argentina 3-2 (2005). The rest are made up of footballing giants such as China, Malta and most recently Trinidad & Tobago. So an England win? Unlikely.

Finally, let's not forget there are two teams in this match. What of the Germans in friendlies? Over the same 15 year test period their record is P99 W58 D19 L21. More impressive than England although not stellar.

Their home record does read better than Capello's side - P49 W32 D7 L10 - but home defeats have come to the likes of Hungary, the Republic of Ireland and ...Scotland, amongst others. Clearly they haven't had it all their own way in recent years.

So what have we learned?

Well, we know that neither team has a fantastic record in friendlies and neither is at full strength but, then again, neither gets beaten that often in these sort of matches and even when they do, it's rarely by a wide margin.

Taking this onto the Betfair markets, looking at three key markets, the data suggests :-

Match Odds - Germany look a shade big at [2.2] given their home record. England, even at [3.95], are hard to fancy given their poor form against quality opposition. As such, the draw [3.35] is an option - more so as England have drawn away to Holland (twice), France and Portugal in this time, all comparable in standard to Germany.

Correct Score - If you buy into the draw then 1-1 [7.2] would probably be the only option (all the above draws were 1-1). However, if you have to side with either team, Germany 1-0 [8.6] and 2-1 [10.0] has historical appeal (incidentally the results of the last three England/Germany friendlies - all won by Germany).

Over/Under 2.5 goals - the under at [1.90] looks a solid call. Both sides may struggle going forward, neither gets rolled over that often and the two teams may well suffer from the 'early season' uncompetitive nature of this match. This match is based more upon PR than a passionate desire to beat the old enemy.

Statistically speaking, this should be a close game. The two sides are well-matched, well-managed and, despite numerous late withdrawals, well-prepared.

Will it be exciting? Well, that's hard to tell. Will it be profitable on Betfair? Armed with this information there's every chance!

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