International Football Betting: Germany v England

Internationals / Razhan Miran / 18 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Just because it's a friendly and a handful of regular starters are missing from both sides, doesn't mean there isn't money to be made on Betfair, says Razhan Miran. Betting.betfair.com's resident German football expert tells us all we need to know.

As two of football's greatest foes prepare to lock horns in Berlin on Wednesday night, I can't help but wonder whether this is the least excited I have ever been about this fixture.

A quick look at both squad lists suggests this will be little more than a run out for the fringe players, with the more established members choosing to stay at home and instead watch Diego Maradona's new look Argentina play keep ball against the Scots.

As per usual, the big clubs have withdrawn their biggest stars, with apparent injuries to Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Wayne Rooney, Rio Ferdinand and Joe Cole. John Terry is also a major doubt, which may leave England with a desperately inexperienced back four.

Joachim Low also has his fair share of injury woes, and ironically, one in particular stemming from these isles. Michael Ballack, who was on the bench for Chelsea on Saturday, is absent, as is Torsten Frings and Philip Lahm.

It almost seems as though there has been a pre-match agreement between Capello and Low, to each field an experimental side in preparation for World Cup qualifying matches next year, with each manager calling upon the services of three uncapped players. So it doesn't look like the feast of football we were all hoping for, but with both teams likely to ring in the changes at half time, we may have an open game on our hands, and hopefully a few goals.

Germany, as with England, have been in a rigorous rebuilding process since losing to Spain in the Euro 2008 final. That team, which had so many similarities to Jurgen Klinsmann's World Cup heroes from 2006, looks almost unrecognisable these days, with the likes of Rene Adler, Piotr Trochowski, Heiko Westermann, Simon Rolfes, and Patrick Helmes all regulars.

And recent results look favourably upon Low's revolution, with Germany sitting top of their qualifying group, with three wins out of four. They will look to continue in their rich vein of form, however with their biggest problem undoubtedly their defence, and with Christian Pander, Marcell Jansen, and Clemens Fritz, as well as the aforementioned Lahm all out, it may be the same old story at the back.

Marvin Compper from high flying Hoffenheim, and Wolfsburg's Marcel Schaefer are likely to win their first caps at the back, and with the pace of Theo Walcott and Ashley Young attacking them from either wing, they are certainly in for a tough time, as Low will be more than ware of. England's backline does not exude confidence itself either, which is why the Over 2.5 Goals at [2.12] is an excellent bet. Furthermore, take the [1.48] on No Germany Clean Sheet, as this is far too big in my opinion.

England are of course looking better than they have done in a while, and it is these types of games that Capello specialises in. He masterminded a superb counterattacking performance in Zagreb, and will attempt to assemble a similar set-up in Berlin, however with a heavily weakened team. The Match Odds are difficult to call, but Germany are certainly too short at [2.2], and I am tempted to lay at that price. In all honesty, I would prefer to back Germany, but they are too short across the board, including the Asian Handicap, and anyone backing at [2.2] is not getting good value for their money.

In which case, my money will be firmly placed on the draw at [3.35], which is the best value bet in the Match Odds.

Although Miroslav Klose has had a somewhat quiet season with Bayern Munich thus far, he has been his usual free scoring self for Germany. He is likely to be partnered by Patrick Helmes who in contrast, has been on sizzling form for Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Back Klose to be the First Goalscorer at [7.0], and Helmes To Score at [3.3]. Gabriel Agbonlahor will be in great spirits after tearing through the Arsenal defence on Saturday, and at about [3.9], could also be a shrewd bet To Score on his England debut.

The last time these two sides met, ended in a two-one home defeat for England at Wembley. Both sides were weakened then, even more so under Steve Mclaren, and Germany ran out deserved winners. Another 2-1 win for the Germans looks quite tempting at [10.0], certainly more so than backing them in the Match Odds. The 2-2 at [18.0] may also be a nice back, with a view to trading in-play for the more experienced Betfair users amongst you.

Probable Teams:

Germany: Rene Adler, Arne Friedrich, Per Mertesacker, Heiko Westermann, Marcel Schaefer, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Thomas Hitzlsperger, Simon Rolfes, Piotr Trochowski, Patrick Helmes, Miroslav Klose.

England: David James, Glen Johnson, Joleon Lescott, John Terry, Wayne Bridge, Theo Walcott, Gareth Barry, Michael Carrick, Ashley Young, Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch.