Football Betting: South Africa beckons but England doubts linger

Internationals / Ralph Ellis / 07 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Thanks heavens that a draw on Wednesday [3.9] will be enough to guarantee a place in South Africa if Ukraine don’t win away to Belarus on the same night."

Saturday's cagey win over Slovenia demonstrated once again that for all Capello's success there remain too many issues with this England side, says Ralph Ellis.

The schools are back today, so let's start with a maths question. If it costs £24million to buy a centre-half, how much more would you have to pay for one who could track a runner and mark at the near post?

It must be what Manchester City's owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan is asking himself - or more pertinently asking his manager Mark Hughes - this morning after Joleon Lescott's hapless 26 minute cameo against Slovenia. Poor Lescott was booed on to the field by England's fans when he replaced Matthew Upson, and he was probably booed off by Fabio Capello at the end of the game too.

Brought up in the ultra defensive world of Italian football, Capello must despair of his efforts to sort out the rearguard in his current venture. Slovenia's late score at Wembley now means that in 17 games since he took charge with a 2-1 win over Switzerland, his team have kept a clean sheet only six times. The list of those who failed to beat our defence contains such giants of world football as Andorra (twice), Kazakhstan, Slovakia, the USA, and Trinidad and Tobago.

It's why the most tempting bet I can find this morning as a result of the weekend's action is [1.8] for England to fail to keep a clean sheet when Slaven Bilic and Croatia come to town on Wednesday. The 4-1 win in Zagreb remains the defining game of Capello's management spell so far. It has bought him time and respect, just as Sven Goran Eriksson earned for the magical night in Munich when his team put five past the Germans. For it to count, though, it now has to be followed up and the signs on Saturday weren't too promising.

Lescott was just one of many question marks at the back. Matthew Upson didn't look comfortable against small and technically good forwards, and his distribution was poor. John Terry missed having the pace and quality on the ball of Rio Ferdinand alongside him. Glen Johnson was never better than ordinary. Behind them all Robert Green looked a tad more composed than in his previous five caps but still seems as if he's about to burst into tears with fright at any time.

England are [1.61] to win and I'm not sure I'd back that. For all Capello's success so far there remain too many issues. Steven Gerrard still can't influence the game enough drifting from the left, Shaun Wright-Phillips was anonymous on the right, and Emile Heskey is clearly struggling for fitness at the moment. Thanks heavens that a draw on Wednesday [3.9] will be enough to guarantee a place in South Africa if Ukraine don't win away to Belarus on the same night.

While Lescott was caught out at Wembley, the man he's replaced at Eastlands, Richard Dunne, was man of the match for the Republic of Ireland in Cyprus. The Irish are now [1.2] to finish in the top two positions of group eight after Robbie Keane's 83rd minute winner. Sadly, even if they were to beat Italy in Dublin next month it wouldn't guarantee them finishing top - two own goals by Georgia's Kakha Kaladze that presented the Italians with a 2-0 win in Tbilisi made sure of that.

For all the 'winning mentality' talk of Capello and Ireland's boss Giovanni Trapattoni, however, you don't have to be Italian to succeed as an international manager. Nigel Worthington is proving that with a fantastic run in charge of Northern Ireland. A gutsy 1-1 draw in Poland has rekindled memories of Billy Bingham's great days, and they could go top of Group Three with a win over Slovakia at Windsor Park. Worthington's team are [2.66] to do that and on their current form must have every chance.

If only you could feel so confident about Scotland. The 2-0 win at home to Macedonia has opened their path, but now they must beat Holland at Hampden to keep going. Norway's failure to beat Iceland is a help, but the absence of James McFadden through suspension for an undeserved yellow card has all the hallmarks of one of those hard luck stories that always seem to dog the Braveheart Scots. And [2.26] for the Dutch, who beat Japan 3-0 in a friendly, to win on Wednesday looks generous. Just a glance at their goalscorers - Van Persie, Sneijder, Huntelaar - is a reminder of far greater class which means they should be odds on.

A list of those goalscorers brings us back to England. If the defenders aren't up to the job then Capello could have to rely on his supersub Jermain Defoe again. And if you watched how he finished his chance at Wembley while Wayne Rooney fluffed two that were far easier, then [4.7] for the Spurs man to be top English scorer in the Premier League as opposed to Rooney's [2.14] favourite is the bet you simply must take.