Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 21 June 2009 /

This might not be the most keenly contested England-Germany game of all time, warns Tobias Gourlay. Best Bet: Back 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Scores at [5.3] and [5.2]

What a pleasure it is to report England's good record against Germany at Under-21 level. The Three Lions have won four and lost only one of eight previous matches. The sole defeat came in the second leg of final of the 1982 European Championships, a tie they ended up winning anyway. Most recently, England won qualifying play-off games in both Coventry and Leverkusen to earn a place at the 2007 finals.

In Leverkusen, Theo Walcott came off the bench to score his country's two unanswered goals. The jet-heeled boy child has been off his game since a shoulder injury interrupted his club season, and was dropped for the recent win over Spain, but, as the perspicacious Mike Norman has pointed out, he could easily still become a very important player in the later stages of the tournament.

Such is the state of Group A of Sweden 2009 going into this final round of matches that the draw at [2.24] is a firm favourite in the Match Outcome market. England are already guaranteed a place in the semi-finals, thanks to previous wins over Spain and Finland, while Germany need only avoid defeat to ensure they join their old rivals in the knockout stages. A victory for either side (Germany are [3.35], England [3.75]) would see them through as group winners, which would probably confer the advantage of avoiding a semi-final with Italy, whose 10 men were impressive in beating the tournament hosts on Friday.

Draws are, of course, more likely in games containing few goals. This is why Under 2.5 Goals is as short as [1.47] for Monday's clash.

If you suspect that pragmatism will override any sense of unfinished business in the mind of Stuart Pearce, the England coach who suffered personal embarrassment against Germany at Italia '90 and lost a penalty shootout to the same opposition on home turf at Euro '96, an appealing strategy might be to cover 0-0 ([5.3]) and 1-1 ([5.2]) in the Correct Score market for those are the most obvious ways in which to contrive a draw.

Did somebody say 'contrive'? I am sure that is not what they meant.

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