England v Slovenia Betting Preview: Tougher task than the odds suggest

Internationals / Tareq Quiroz / 04 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"I expect England to win this match but it might not be as comfortable as many may think. Slovenia are going well in their qualifying group and given a good finish they could well be joining England in South Africa next year. They are a pretty solid unit and have only conceded four goals in their seven qualifying games."

Saturday is merely a warm-up for the real business of Wednesday night and Croatia's visit to Wembley so don't expect too much of England, says Tareq Quiroz.

If it seems like only a few of weeks since we last had a round of internationals then that's because it is. Whilst the fixtures prior to the start of the Premier League were largely criticised, England are now back to the serious business of qualifying for the World Cup. Well, almost. Capello and his men warm up for their big game against Croatia next week with a friendly encounter against Slovenia at Wembley on Saturday.

This current England team can apparently do little wrong. There aren't too many sides who would be able to come back from 2-0 down away to Holland to claim a draw. Whilst there was some calamitous defending from England it was encouraging to see the second half fightback. They won't face anything like that quality of opposition at Wembley on Saturday, but make no mistake Slovenia are no mugs.

The Match Odds market pretty much gives you a fair reflection of the likely outcome of this match. England are currently trading at [1.19] and although you might not get rich backing them it is hard to offer up any other possibility. There have been times when they haven't played well at all but still got the result and that now seems to be showing in a confident looking team. Fabio Capello clearly used the Holland game to have a look at a few players but despite this also being a friendly I don't expect anything of the sort this time around. If you are fit and you are part of what he sees as his strongest 11 then you will play on Saturday.

Who he perceives as his best players is another question altogether. Most intriguing will be who plays up top. I suspect that it will be Rooney and Heskey who will eventually get the nod. Capello clearly likes what Heskey brings to the team and whilst Defoe was electric against Holland it may be that he will be used as an impact sub at this stage.

I expect England to win this match but it might not be as comfortable as many may think. Slovenia are going well in their qualifying group and given a good finish they could well be joining England in South Africa next year. They are a pretty solid unit and have only conceded four goals in their seven qualifying games. This would suggest that England may find it difficult to break them down, especially early on. The Half-Time/Full-Time market is not a place I usually go but on this occasion I really like the Draw/England option. I really do not like playing on this market but today I really think it is worth a shot. At current odds of [5.2] I think that represents pretty decent value.

It is fair to say that both teams will be much more concerned about their upcoming qualifying games next Wednesday than this fixture. I don't expect a huge sense of urgency from either team and goals may well be at a premium. Some of the over/under markets have appeal and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing Under 2.5 Goals at odds of around [2.62]. The market that gets my attention however is Correct Score. For those of you who prefer a decent lay bet then I can't see past taking on the Any Unquoted option. For that option to be a winner then one of the two teams would have to score at least four goals. It is fair to say that won't be Slovenia so the onus is on England. They have put four past a few teams recently but I really can't see it this time and I will be laying Any Unquoted at [3.4].

My attention was also grabbed by the Bookings Odds market. Friendly matches don't often have many bookings but that is not concrete rule and the odds available on 5pts and Under are striking. You can lay that option at odds of [1.48]. That has to be too short for a punt that requires there to be less than 3 bookings in a match. It doesn't take much to get a few bookings and laying 5pts and Under at those sort odds is a stand out bet for me.

Whatever happens on Saturday it really is only a warm-up for the big one next week. I don't expect to be jumping up off my sofa too often but with any luck there is a few quid to be made with some canny punting.