England U21s Football Betting: Expect a low-scoring experiment

Internationals / Mike Norman / 18 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

The inexperience of both squads coupled with the emphasis on experiment over results makes betting on the England v Czech Republic U21 international a tough call, says Mike Norman.

Regular readers of these pages will know that I'm not a fan of international friendlies, especially when they come in the middle of two weekends of Premiership fixtures.

It's not surprising then that the likes of Frank Lampard, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney will miss England's game against Germany on Wednesday with supposed injuries - it will be even less surprising if they are back to full fitness and able to represent their club sides at the weekend. Think of this what you like, but I'm guessing you know what hymn sheet I'm singing from.

At least international friendlies at Under-21 level are a lot more bearable, mainly due to the fact that they give some less experienced players a chance to shine on the big stage - and of course knowing that they won't withdraw from the squad with a damaged eyelash!

Stuart Pearce has named an inexperienced looking squad for the game against Czech Republic at Bramall Lane on Tuesday, further weakened by having to let Michael Mancienne and Micah Richards join the senior team. This all means that only three players (Nedum Onuoha, Adam Johnson and Matt Derbyshire) in the squad have actually scored a goal at this level, whilst six players who have been called up are hoping to be given their first taste of Under-21 football (Sylvan Ebanks-Blake being the most noteworthy after his excellent start to the season with Wolves).

With a lot of unknowns in the Czech Republic squad, it makes predicting the outcome of this game a difficult task. In the Match Odds market England U21 are available to back at [1.6], The Draw at [4.2], and Czech Republic at [7.2].

Ask yourself this. Are you willing to risk your hard earned on an inexperienced England team against a bunch of unknowns that (if the Czech Republic senior team is anything to go by) are probably capable of some technically brilliant football?

Stuart Pearce can name a strong looking line-up if he chooses with the likes of Onuoha and Craig Gardener in defence, Johnson, Aaron Lennon and Fabrice Muamba in midfield, and Frazier Campbell and Derbyshire in attack. But you must remember that this is a friendly where performances and experiments are far more important than results with Pearce's eye very much on next summer's European Championship Finals.

It's also worth pointing out that in some of England's recent home international friendlies they've failed to beat Romania and Poland and only narrowly overcame Slovenia - Under-21 teams which were rated far inferior to the England pre-match.

With all this in mind, the percentage call for me would be to lay England at the current odds of [1.61], whilst having a small investment on the away team at [7.2].

Three of England's last four friendlies have yielded two or less goals and I can see this game following suit. Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at [2.12], with Over 2.5 Goals being available at [1.88]. With the tempo of play disrupted by lots of substitutions it's worth seriously considering getting matched at somewhere near the [4.5] mark for Under 1.5 Goals pre-match (currently available at [4.1]).

I'm not going to play heavily in some of this game's markets, but at small stakes I like the look of Draw/Draw and Draw/Czech Republic in the Half Time/Full Time market, and you can get matched at odds of [7.0] and [15.0] respectively - maybe a bit higher if you leave up a request.

There are no surprises in the First Goalscorer market with Frazier Campbell ([5.4]), Matt Derbyshire ([5.7]) and Sylvan Ebanks-Blake ([5.7]) vying for favouritism. The first of the Czech Republic players in this market is the English based Tomas Pekhart at [8.6] (currently on loan at Southampton), and though his record of just one Championship goal in eight appearances is hardly inspiring, his record of six goals in seven games at this level makes far better reading.

The Correct Score market has 1-0 to England ([8.0]), 2-0 to England ([9.6]), and a 1-1 draw ([8.6]) as the most fancied, whilst a 0-0 draw ([17.0]) and 1-0 to the away team ([21.0]) are the two fancy prices that catch my eye. But I must stress that this game is shaping up to be a very low-key and perhaps cagey affair with my best recommendation being to keep your stakes to a minimum - unless you know something we mere mortals don't.