Internationals / Mike Norman / 26 May 2010 / 4

One of the toughest markets to predict at this summer's World Cup is the England Stage of Elimination, so we've given an extremely unbiased Mike Norman the task of doing just that.

When I was asked what stage I think England will be eliminated from this summer's World Cup, I jumped straight on to one of those football predictor websites, where you type in the scores for each individual match and end up with the tournament winner within five minutes.

Of course, with England playing USA, Slovenia and Algeria we sauntered through our group, collecting maximum points, and having a goal difference of plus 22. In the last 16 I had England playing Australia - you see, I looked at my wall-chart and worked out that if we top Group C we play the runners-up in Group D. As the Aussies are rubbish at football, I made them finish second in their group. A 6-0 win then ensued for our magnificent Three Lions, before beating South Africa in the last eight, North Korea in the last four, and Honduras in the final.

Job done then... at [7.6] to back, England are a great bet to become World Champions aren't they? Well they were, until a huge bout of realism penetrated my small, and as yet overly-optimistic brain.

Fortunately - for this article at least - I've taken a more sensible approach to trying to predict at what stage England will be eliminated from the World Cup. The betting goes like this; group stage [13.0], last 16 [3.8], quarter-finals [4.5], semi-finals [4.8], runners-up [8.6], winners [7.6]. It's rather interesting don't you think, that England are more fancied to win the World Cup than they are to get beat in the final?

It's very easy to see why the Last 16 option is the favourite in this market as the likelihood is that England will face either Germany or Serbia in that first knock-out round. In all honesty I think Germany will be the easier option and I believe they're the team we will face. Fabio Capello's men should top Group C ([1.38] to do so), which will set up a meeting with the runners-up from Group D. Germany are the [1.97] favourites to win that group, but don't underestimate Serbia at [4.5]; they're a very useful squad boasting players from top clubs all across Europe.

Germany are an excellent tournament team, but on paper they're no great shakes - especially without their influential captain Michael Ballack - so if we do meet them, I think we'll prevail. If we meet Serbia then that will be an extremely difficult game, but again - and I hope that this isn't my heart ruling my head - I believe we can win.

In the quarter final, England could meet France. I've read a lot about how the French will struggle but they've still got a very decent set of players. I can see them winning Group A [2.14] which will set up a last 16 encounter with either Greece or Nigeria. If that's the case, I can see Raymond Domenech's side winning that one also. England v France would be very difficult to call. The teams are very evenly matched with starting elevens which feature a number of players approaching or already in their 30s. They'll know each others' game inside out and the match could easily be decided by a single goal. Or, dare I say it, a penalty shoot-out.

But these are just my thoughts; England have a good chance of getting to the semi-final, more because of a favourable draw than being a great team; but if we do get to the last four then we will meet Brazil and, that my friend, is where our tournament ends.

How far do you think England will get? Let me know what you think by leaving a comment below.

Recommended bets:

Quarter-Finals @ [4.5]
Semi-Finals @ [4.8]

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1. Steve | 26 May 2010

   I'm not so sure. This Brazilian squad looks to me to be fairly weak in comparison to those of previous tournaments. I fear England's weak spots - specifically in goal and in centre-midfield - will be exploited by whoever they face in the last 16 and that will be that for them.
   The Argentinian squad looks head and shoulders above the rest, to me.
   If it's a dark horse you're looking for, well, Denmark (at 190/1!!), given the ease with which they qualified and the group they're in, might just be a worthy each way bet.

2. Mike | 27 May 2010

   Thanks for the comment Steve.

   I concur with your fears with England, like I say, I think they'll get to where they get because of a decent draw rather than being a good team.

   I disagree with Brazil however (but that's the beauty of football). When you've got a player like Maicon keeping a player of Dani Alves' ability out of the side then that goes to prove how much strength in depth they've got. Players like Maxwell from Barcelona aren't even in the squad because of the amount of talent at Dunga's disposal.

   I agree regarding Argentina, and I have a mate who won't hear anything else but a victory for them, but I'm not sure about Maradona as a coach. I have a feeling that he might be their undoing :-)

3. Mark J | 06 June 2010

   Interesting analysis. Is anyone offering odds on England to lose to France in a penalty shoot-out?

4. Mike | 06 June 2010

   Hi Mark,

   At this stage Betfair aren't offering a market on England to lose to France in a penalty shoot-out, but we do have an England Penalty Loss market (which I've previewed on these pages).

   However, if England do get to meet France at any stage then you will be able to back a 'defeat' on penalties then - though I admit the odds will be much shorter than backing that prediction pre-tournament.

   Good luck with all your World Cup bets.

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