Football Food For Thought / Frank Gregan / 03 July 2008 / Leave a comment

Legendary non-league manager Frank Gregan raises his eyebrows at the numbers involved as Deco signs for Chelsea and Ronaldo and Berbatov look likely to move. Then there's the small matter of a cracking bet involving Chelsea.

I have a Scottish friend who follows Glasgow Rangers. I was winding him up at the weekend about how much of a two horse race the SPL has become and telling him that the only easier reverse forecast to pick is Oxford and Cambridge in the boat race! He pointed out to me that there was another of equal proportion, Manchester Utd and Chelsea in our Premier League. He believes the big four is a thing of the past, it is now all about the gigantic two!

There was a rumour doing the rounds last month that Roman Abramovich had set aside £100 million in order to bring Lionel Messi to Stamford Bridge. It looks as if the Brazilian Robinho will be joining the Blues for £27 million from Real Madrid who in turn are said to be offering £80 million for Cristiano Ronaldo. Huge sums of money but if any confirmation was needed that the game has gone absolutely barking it was provided on Tuesday when Chelsea forked out £8 million on a very talented playmaker who has less than five years to go before he will be eligible for a PFA pension! Deco is a quality player but he is coming towards the end of his career and consequently the transfer fee is dead money. It had to have been factored in when the total cost of his two year package was calculated.

It seems Chelsea have that kind of money to burn and although Manchester United will be very disappointed if they lose the services of Ronaldo, 80 million smackers is one heck of a compensation. It will probably secure the services of Dimitar Berbatov and leave £50 million available in the war chest for the purchase of any other players who excel in the lesser teams as the season progresses and the transfer window re-opens.

Aston Villa and Spurs are two of the lesser teams with aspirations of improving their standing. As well as the likelihood of losing Berbatov, Spurs are rumoured to be struggling to hold on to Robbie Keane and Villa look set to lose Gareth Barry to Liverpool. If the top teams continue to cherry pick from mid-table the divide between the established and the rest can only widen.

One thing is certain, if Chelsea lose Lampard and Ronaldo gets his move to Spain both of the gigantic two have the funds and the kudos to be able to attract adequate replacements. Will Spurs be able to replace Berbatov and Keane?

I think my Jock friend is right, it is going to be a two horse race this season. There is much more value to be had on the big two in the English Premier League than the SPL. The third priced team in Scotland can be matched at around [100] and it is any price the others. That drags down the price of the old firm but in England the big four all have single digit odds.

That stimulates value and there is one market that stands out. The top two finish market. Chelsea have been matched at [1.78] but once the market settles down [1.66] will probably be as good as it gets with volume. That is my bet of the season, given the financial clout that is available to Scolari it is the absolute minimum he should achieve.

Speaking of Scotland, spiralling transfer fees and as a consequence huge wage packets leads me onto one of my favourite football tales. A good mate of mine was transferred to Celtic as their record signing. I have ribbed him about how much he would be earning in today's market but it doesn't pull his chain. He has always been delighted just to have made his living from the game.

Celtic was his first move and he had never left his parents' English home prior to the transfer. He had yet to make his own bed and as a result of his lack of housekeeping skills he opted to live in a hotel. He fell for one of the hotel staff and moved into her flat on a housing estate in the green and white side of Glasgow. Kids from all over the neighbourhood kept knocking on the door for autographs and he was mobbed every time he stepped out of the house. He never complained, he has no airs or graces and he was happy where they were living. He lived an ordinary lifestyle, drove a normal car and possessed not one ounce of bling.

His girlfriend wasn't used to the attention and didn't really enjoy it. They decided to buy a small place in a more rural area. His girlfriend was somewhat embarrassed when she explained they were going to have to be honest and work out how much they could afford in re-payments. She said, "I clear just under a hundred and fifty quid a week from the hotel, if we put our two wages together we should be able to get a mortgage. How much do you earn?"

He said he wasn't sure, there was appearance money, bonus and signing on fees to be taken into account. "Okay," she said, "but I don't think they allow the extras, what's your basic salary?"

"About five grand a week," he said. They're still married!

Tags: Deco, Ronaldo transfer, transfer fees