FA Cup / The Betfair Contrarian / 15 May 2008 /

Betting on the FA Cup this Saturday? Then why not go for the long shot? The Contrarian explains why backing Cardiff in the final may not be throwing your money away

Now that the great brains behind football marketing have managed to spread the Premier League around the globe, opening up English football activities to an immense worldwide audience, two large gaps in the planet's football education urgently need filling: What is Cardiff? And where in England is to be found?

While congratulations are in order to the FA for freeing themselves from the stranglehold of the Big Four, however temporarily, does anyone know what to expect from the freakish pairing of Cardiff with Portsmouth? The Contrarian believes the open top bus will be needed in Wales....

Portsmouth suck at the moment

Perhaps Portsmouth's massive dip in form - one point from their last five games, culminating in four consecutive defeats - could be explained by their focus on the FA Cup, but once teams start losing it is hard for them to get out of the habit.

In the first 33 league games of the season Portsmouth averaged 1.70 points a game. Had they maintained this tempo they would have finished fifth instead of eighth, but they only managed a demoralising 0.2 points a game in their last five.

Cardiff have some momentum

Cardiff didn't let their semi-final win get to their heads anywhere near as much as Portsmouth and lost just two of their final six, despite having less at stake in the league than Pompey.

They also ended their season on a high with a 3-0 victory over Barnsley. Incidentally, the last four cup finalists to score three or more in their final league game before the final have gone on to win - Liverpool (2006), Arsenal (2003), Chelsea (2000) and Manchester United (1996).

Cardiff have the edge in attack

It seems odd to suggest the Championship side are more prolific but Portsmouth have only scored two in their last six (0.33 a game) compared to Cardiff's 12 and despite Portsmouth having a successful season, they failed to score in 10 of their 19 home games.

Just to show that Portsmouth's flaccidity in front of goal wasn't entirely down to facing tougher defences, both teams faced Premier League opposition once in the FA Cup, but Cardiff scored ten in five games compared to Portsmouth's six.

Of course, Portsmouth did find a solution...

Portsmouth's problems eased up in 2008 as Jermain Defoe arrived to score eight in his first seven games. Undoubtedly a shrewd bit of a business from Harry, but there's one small problem - he can't play in the FA Cup because he appeared for Tottenham in January.

And it's not like Portsmouth can turn to anyone else to fill the void because second-top scorer Nwankwo Kanu has grabbed just six goals in 30 games as a striker. Milan Baros arrived in January but has yet to score in 15 appearances while flop Dave Nugent has scored three in 21, two of which came in League Cup games. Maybe letting 12-goal striker Benjani move in January wasn't their best idea...

The Premier League-Championship pendulum

The Championship has gone toe-to-toe with the Premier League throughout this year's tournament and not flinched. There have been 17 Premiership-Championship ties in this year's FA Cup, and ignoring the matches that went to replays, both divisions triumphed seven times, with three draws.

What's more, the advantage has swung with the rhythmic precision of a Swiss timepiece. In round three the Premier League came out on top (6-2), in round four, the Championship (2-1). Then in round five it was the Premier League's turn again (2-1) before the Championship took charge in the quarters (2-0). Portsmouth's victory over West Brom handed the advantage to the Premier League in the semis, but now in the final it's the Championship's turn to win.

And if you want a lucky omen thrown in...

The last two big games at Wembley - the Community Shield and the League Cup Final - have been won by the team travelling the longer distance.

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